Following the Supreme Court's 6-3 ruling on February 20 striking down President Trump's tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the Court of International Trade ordered refunds with interest for affected importers on March 4, totaling up to $166 billion across 53 million shipments. This judicial mandate has driven trader consensus to a 64.5% implied probability for Yes, as the administration prepares to launch a refund portal on April 20 amid lawsuits from businesses like FedEx. Ongoing litigation over new tariffs under Section 122 and logistical hurdles for processing claims temper full certainty, with Senate Democrats pushing for consumer pass-throughs and potential appeals looming before the June 30 resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$355,181 거래량
$355,181 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$355,181 거래량
$355,181 거래량
2026.06.30
On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.Following the Supreme Court's 6-3 ruling on February 20 striking down President Trump's tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the Court of International Trade ordered refunds with interest for affected importers on March 4, totaling up to $166 billion across 53 million shipments. This judicial mandate has driven trader consensus to a 64.5% implied probability for Yes, as the administration prepares to launch a refund portal on April 20 amid lawsuits from businesses like FedEx. Ongoing litigation over new tariffs under Section 122 and logistical hurdles for processing claims temper full certainty, with Senate Democrats pushing for consumer pass-throughs and potential appeals looming before the June 30 resolution.
On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Jan 6, 2026, 11:01 PM ET
거래량
$355,181종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 11:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.Following the Supreme Court's 6-3 ruling on February 20 striking down President Trump's tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the Court of International Trade ordered refunds with interest for affected importers on March 4, totaling up to $166 billion across 53 million shipments. This judicial mandate has driven trader consensus to a 64.5% implied probability for Yes, as the administration prepares to launch a refund portal on April 20 amid lawsuits from businesses like FedEx. Ongoing litigation over new tariffs under Section 122 and logistical hurdles for processing claims temper full certainty, with Senate Democrats pushing for consumer pass-throughs and potential appeals looming before the June 30 resolution.
On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$355,181종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 11:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the Supreme Court's 6-3 ruling on February 20 striking down President Trump's tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the Court of International Trade ordered refunds with interest for affected importers on March 4, totaling up to $166 billion across 53 million shipments. This judicial mandate has driven trader consensus to a 64.5% implied probability for Yes, as the administration prepares to launch a refund portal on April 20 amid lawsuits from businesses like FedEx. Ongoing litigation over new tariffs under Section 122 and logistical hurdles for processing claims temper full certainty, with Senate Democrats pushing for consumer pass-throughs and potential appeals looming before the June 30 resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문