Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 75.5% implied probability that the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee will be male, driven by California Governor Gavin Newsom's commanding 24% lead in the platform's nominee market, ahead of women like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8%) and Kamala Harris (5%). Harris's 2024 general election defeat has eroded her frontrunner status despite a 26% RCP polling average lead through mid-March, with recent surveys showing volatility—such as Newsom topping an Emerson poll and Pete Buttigieg leading in New Hampshire. Other women like Gretchen Whitmer poll at just 2%, underscoring limited female momentum in the open primary ahead of 2026 midterms.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
NEW
NEW
Nov 7, 2028
はい
NEW
NEW
Nov 7, 2028
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 75.5% implied probability that the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee will be male, driven by California Governor Gavin Newsom's commanding 24% lead in the platform's nominee market, ahead of women like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8%) and Kamala Harris (5%). Harris's 2024 general election defeat has eroded her frontrunner status despite a 26% RCP polling average lead through mid-March, with recent surveys showing volatility—such as Newsom topping an Emerson poll and Pete Buttigieg leading in New Hampshire. Other women like Gretchen Whitmer poll at just 2%, underscoring limited female momentum in the open primary ahead of 2026 midterms.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
マーケット開始日： Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
音量
$165終了日
Nov 7, 2028マーケット開始日
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 75.5% implied probability that the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee will be male, driven by California Governor Gavin Newsom's commanding 24% lead in the platform's nominee market, ahead of women like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8%) and Kamala Harris (5%). Harris's 2024 general election defeat has eroded her frontrunner status despite a 26% RCP polling average lead through mid-March, with recent surveys showing volatility—such as Newsom topping an Emerson poll and Pete Buttigieg leading in New Hampshire. Other women like Gretchen Whitmer poll at just 2%, underscoring limited female momentum in the open primary ahead of 2026 midterms.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$165終了日
Nov 7, 2028マーケット開始日
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 75.5% implied probability that the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee will be male, driven by California Governor Gavin Newsom's commanding 24% lead in the platform's nominee market, ahead of women like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8%) and Kamala Harris (5%). Harris's 2024 general election defeat has eroded her frontrunner status despite a 26% RCP polling average lead through mid-March, with recent surveys showing volatility—such as Newsom topping an Emerson poll and Pete Buttigieg leading in New Hampshire. Other women like Gretchen Whitmer poll at just 2%, underscoring limited female momentum in the open primary ahead of 2026 midterms.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問