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Will Artemis or Starship reach space first?

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Will Artemis or Starship reach space first?

This is a market on which launch will be successfully completed first: NASA's Artemis or SpaceX's Starship.

If NASA's Artemis completes a successful launch before SpaceX's Starship, this market will resolve to "Artemis". If SpaceX's Starship completes a successful launch before NASA's Artemis, this market will resolve to "Starship".

This market may resolve as soon as one of the mentioned launches is successfully completed.

If neither launch is successfully completed by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

A successful launch will mean that either mission takes off from its launchpad and successfully reaches the Karman Line, an altitude of at least 100 Kilometers (~62 miles) above sea level.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NASA, or SpaceX, and/or the official video feed of the launched missions (e.g. https://www.youtube.com/c/NASA, https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), however secondary video feeds and other credible reporting may also be used.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion, deorbiting, etc.) after the core stage of either mission reaches the Karman Line will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
音量
$3,670
終了日
Dec 31, 2023
マーケット開始日
Oct 17, 2022, 8:00 PM ET
This is a market on which launch will be successfully completed first: NASA's Artemis or SpaceX's Starship. If NASA's Artemis completes a successful launch before SpaceX's Starship, this market will resolve to "Artemis". If SpaceX's Starship completes a successful launch before NASA's Artemis, this market will resolve to "Starship". This market may resolve as soon as one of the mentioned launches is successfully completed. If neither launch is successfully completed by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. A successful launch will mean that either mission takes off from its launchpad and successfully reaches the Karman Line, an altitude of at least 100 Kilometers (~62 miles) above sea level. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NASA, or SpaceX, and/or the official video feed of the launched missions (e.g. https://www.youtube.com/c/NASA, https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), however secondary video feeds and other credible reporting may also be used. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion, deorbiting, etc.) after the core stage of either mission reaches the Karman Line will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

提案された結果: Artemis

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: Artemis

This is a market on which launch will be successfully completed first: NASA's Artemis or SpaceX's Starship.

If NASA's Artemis completes a successful launch before SpaceX's Starship, this market will resolve to "Artemis". If SpaceX's Starship completes a successful launch before NASA's Artemis, this market will resolve to "Starship".

This market may resolve as soon as one of the mentioned launches is successfully completed.

If neither launch is successfully completed by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

A successful launch will mean that either mission takes off from its launchpad and successfully reaches the Karman Line, an altitude of at least 100 Kilometers (~62 miles) above sea level.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NASA, or SpaceX, and/or the official video feed of the launched missions (e.g. https://www.youtube.com/c/NASA, https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), however secondary video feeds and other credible reporting may also be used.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion, deorbiting, etc.) after the core stage of either mission reaches the Karman Line will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
音量
$3,670
終了日
Dec 31, 2023
マーケット開始日
Oct 17, 2022, 8:00 PM ET
This is a market on which launch will be successfully completed first: NASA's Artemis or SpaceX's Starship. If NASA's Artemis completes a successful launch before SpaceX's Starship, this market will resolve to "Artemis". If SpaceX's Starship completes a successful launch before NASA's Artemis, this market will resolve to "Starship". This market may resolve as soon as one of the mentioned launches is successfully completed. If neither launch is successfully completed by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. A successful launch will mean that either mission takes off from its launchpad and successfully reaches the Karman Line, an altitude of at least 100 Kilometers (~62 miles) above sea level. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NASA, or SpaceX, and/or the official video feed of the launched missions (e.g. https://www.youtube.com/c/NASA, https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), however secondary video feeds and other credible reporting may also be used. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion, deorbiting, etc.) after the core stage of either mission reaches the Karman Line will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

提案された結果: Artemis

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: Artemis

外部リンクに注意してください。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Artemis or Starship reach space first?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Will Artemis or Starship reach space first?" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Artemis or Starship reach space first?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Oct 18, 2022. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Artemis or Starship reach space first?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Artemis or Starship reach space first?" is "Will Artemis or Starship reach space first?" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Artemis or Starship reach space first?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.