Ukrainian forces maintain control of Ternuvate in Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid intensified Russian offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction, where attacks southwest of Oleksandrivka near the village occurred on March 26-27 without confirmed advances or changes to the forward edge of the battle area. Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian strikes on Russian infiltrators in nearby Ternove, preserving a gray zone of interspersed positions but no terrain losses. Following February territorial gains—including reversals of early Russian pushes into Ternuvate—Ukrainian drone defenses, river barriers, and regular sweeps continue to hinder Russian efforts. Traders weigh persistent frontline pressure against Ukraine's defensive resilience, with no major escalations or diplomatic shifts in the past 30 days.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$60,847 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
3月31日
1%
4月30日
9%
$60,847 Vol.
3月31日
$0 Vol.
1%
4月30日
$6,048 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Ternuvate will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/dSsbhxhymtVQgM7RA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Ternuvate will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/dSsbhxhymtVQgM7RA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Ternuvate will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/dSsbhxhymtVQgM7RA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.Ukrainian forces maintain control of Ternuvate in Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid intensified Russian offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction, where attacks southwest of Oleksandrivka near the village occurred on March 26-27 without confirmed advances or changes to the forward edge of the battle area. Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian strikes on Russian infiltrators in nearby Ternove, preserving a gray zone of interspersed positions but no terrain losses. Following February territorial gains—including reversals of early Russian pushes into Ternuvate—Ukrainian drone defenses, river barriers, and regular sweeps continue to hinder Russian efforts. Traders weigh persistent frontline pressure against Ukraine's defensive resilience, with no major escalations or diplomatic shifts in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Ternuvate will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/dSsbhxhymtVQgM7RA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Ternuvate will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/dSsbhxhymtVQgM7RA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
マーケット開始日： Feb 13, 2026, 1:18 PM ET
音量
$60,847終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 13, 2026, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Ternuvate will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/dSsbhxhymtVQgM7RA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Ternuvate will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/dSsbhxhymtVQgM7RA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Ternuvate will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/dSsbhxhymtVQgM7RA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.Ukrainian forces maintain control of Ternuvate in Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid intensified Russian offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction, where attacks southwest of Oleksandrivka near the village occurred on March 26-27 without confirmed advances or changes to the forward edge of the battle area. Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian strikes on Russian infiltrators in nearby Ternove, preserving a gray zone of interspersed positions but no terrain losses. Following February territorial gains—including reversals of early Russian pushes into Ternuvate—Ukrainian drone defenses, river barriers, and regular sweeps continue to hinder Russian efforts. Traders weigh persistent frontline pressure against Ukraine's defensive resilience, with no major escalations or diplomatic shifts in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Ternuvate will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/dSsbhxhymtVQgM7RA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Ternuvate will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/dSsbhxhymtVQgM7RA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
音量
$60,847終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 13, 2026, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukrainian forces maintain control of Ternuvate in Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid intensified Russian offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction, where attacks southwest of Oleksandrivka near the village occurred on March 26-27 without confirmed advances or changes to the forward edge of the battle area. Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian strikes on Russian infiltrators in nearby Ternove, preserving a gray zone of interspersed positions but no terrain losses. Following February territorial gains—including reversals of early Russian pushes into Ternuvate—Ukrainian drone defenses, river barriers, and regular sweeps continue to hinder Russian efforts. Traders weigh persistent frontline pressure against Ukraine's defensive resilience, with no major escalations or diplomatic shifts in the past 30 days.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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