GameStop's unsolicited $56 billion cash-and-stock bid for eBay at $125 per share—a 20-46% premium to recent closes—announced May 3, 2026, after quietly building a 5% stake, has driven Polymarket's market-implied "No" probability to 83.5%, reflecting trader consensus on execution hurdles. With GameStop's $12 billion market cap dwarfed by eBay's $46-48 billion, the deal hinges on $9.4 billion cash, uncommitted $20 billion debt financing, and heavy share issuance risking severe dilution for GME shareholders. eBay confirmed receipt but noted no prior talks, fueling skepticism amid antitrust scrutiny and board resistance. Key catalysts include eBay's formal response, potential proxy fight, and HSR antitrust review, with low odds pricing slim paths to completion absent a sweetened offer or strategic pivot.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
新規
$30,452 Vol.
新規
$30,452 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
新規
$30,452 Vol.
新規
$30,452 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that eBay will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with GameStop, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mergers or acquisitions involving eBay or its parent company, eBay Inc., and GameStop or its parent company (if applicable), will qualify.
An announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as GameStop acquires a controlling interest in eBay. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from eBay and GameStop; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.GameStop's unsolicited $56 billion cash-and-stock bid for eBay at $125 per share—a 20-46% premium to recent closes—announced May 3, 2026, after quietly building a 5% stake, has driven Polymarket's market-implied "No" probability to 83.5%, reflecting trader consensus on execution hurdles. With GameStop's $12 billion market cap dwarfed by eBay's $46-48 billion, the deal hinges on $9.4 billion cash, uncommitted $20 billion debt financing, and heavy share issuance risking severe dilution for GME shareholders. eBay confirmed receipt but noted no prior talks, fueling skepticism amid antitrust scrutiny and board resistance. Key catalysts include eBay's formal response, potential proxy fight, and HSR antitrust review, with low odds pricing slim paths to completion absent a sweetened offer or strategic pivot.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that eBay will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with GameStop, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mergers or acquisitions involving eBay or its parent company, eBay Inc., and GameStop or its parent company (if applicable), will qualify.
An announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as GameStop acquires a controlling interest in eBay. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from eBay and GameStop; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mergers or acquisitions involving eBay or its parent company, eBay Inc., and GameStop or its parent company (if applicable), will qualify.
An announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as GameStop acquires a controlling interest in eBay. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from eBay and GameStop; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 4, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
音量
$30,452終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 4, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that eBay will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with GameStop, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mergers or acquisitions involving eBay or its parent company, eBay Inc., and GameStop or its parent company (if applicable), will qualify.
An announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as GameStop acquires a controlling interest in eBay. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from eBay and GameStop; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.GameStop's unsolicited $56 billion cash-and-stock bid for eBay at $125 per share—a 20-46% premium to recent closes—announced May 3, 2026, after quietly building a 5% stake, has driven Polymarket's market-implied "No" probability to 83.5%, reflecting trader consensus on execution hurdles. With GameStop's $12 billion market cap dwarfed by eBay's $46-48 billion, the deal hinges on $9.4 billion cash, uncommitted $20 billion debt financing, and heavy share issuance risking severe dilution for GME shareholders. eBay confirmed receipt but noted no prior talks, fueling skepticism amid antitrust scrutiny and board resistance. Key catalysts include eBay's formal response, potential proxy fight, and HSR antitrust review, with low odds pricing slim paths to completion absent a sweetened offer or strategic pivot.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that eBay will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with GameStop, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mergers or acquisitions involving eBay or its parent company, eBay Inc., and GameStop or its parent company (if applicable), will qualify.
An announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as GameStop acquires a controlling interest in eBay. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from eBay and GameStop; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mergers or acquisitions involving eBay or its parent company, eBay Inc., and GameStop or its parent company (if applicable), will qualify.
An announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as GameStop acquires a controlling interest in eBay. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from eBay and GameStop; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$30,452終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 4, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...GameStop's unsolicited $56 billion cash-and-stock bid for eBay at $125 per share—a 20-46% premium to recent closes—announced May 3, 2026, after quietly building a 5% stake, has driven Polymarket's market-implied "No" probability to 83.5%, reflecting trader consensus on execution hurdles. With GameStop's $12 billion market cap dwarfed by eBay's $46-48 billion, the deal hinges on $9.4 billion cash, uncommitted $20 billion debt financing, and heavy share issuance risking severe dilution for GME shareholders. eBay confirmed receipt but noted no prior talks, fueling skepticism amid antitrust scrutiny and board resistance. Key catalysts include eBay's formal response, potential proxy fight, and HSR antitrust review, with low odds pricing slim paths to completion absent a sweetened offer or strategic pivot.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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