Trader consensus prices Europe at 69.5% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by UEFA's unmatched depth of contenders like reigning Euro 2024 champion Spain, World Cup holders France, England, Germany, Italy, and Portugal, alongside their historical dominance with 12 titles and strong Nations League form. South America holds 21.5% on CONMEBOL powerhouses Argentina's back-to-back Copa América triumphs, Brazil's qualification pace, and Uruguay's resurgence, accounting for 10 past victories. Africa's 4% reflects Morocco's Olympic silver and CAF qualifier momentum from Senegal and Nigeria, while North America's 2.5%, Asia's 2%, and Oceania's 0.4% underscore limited senior success despite expanded 48-team format and CONCACAF hosting advantages, with no continental wins since 1930. Ongoing qualifiers through 2025 will shape slots, but talent gaps persist.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日ヨーロッパ 70%
南米 22%
アフリカ 4.0%
北米 2.6%
$1,476,067 Vol.
$1,476,067 Vol.
ヨーロッパ
70%
南米
22%
アフリカ
4%
北米
3%
アジア
2%
オセアニア
<1%
ヨーロッパ 70%
南米 22%
アフリカ 4.0%
北米 2.6%
$1,476,067 Vol.
$1,476,067 Vol.
ヨーロッパ
70%
南米
22%
アフリカ
4%
北米
3%
アジア
2%
オセアニア
<1%
For example, if France wins the tournament, the market will resolve to Europe.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The definitive source of the continent for each country will be World Population Review (https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/list-of-countries-by-continent).
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/) and the World Population Review; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日: Dec 8, 2025, 3:32 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices Europe at 69.5% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by UEFA's unmatched depth of contenders like reigning Euro 2024 champion Spain, World Cup holders France, England, Germany, Italy, and Portugal, alongside their historical dominance with 12 titles and strong Nations League form. South America holds 21.5% on CONMEBOL powerhouses Argentina's back-to-back Copa América triumphs, Brazil's qualification pace, and Uruguay's resurgence, accounting for 10 past victories. Africa's 4% reflects Morocco's Olympic silver and CAF qualifier momentum from Senegal and Nigeria, while North America's 2.5%, Asia's 2%, and Oceania's 0.4% underscore limited senior success despite expanded 48-team format and CONCACAF hosting advantages, with no continental wins since 1930. Ongoing qualifiers through 2025 will shape slots, but talent gaps persist.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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