Tesla shares closed near $383 on October 9 after a Q3 delivery beat of 486,532 units and stronger-than-expected China sales momentum from Shanghai exports, lifting the stock above its recent range and prompting analyst target increases such as Deutsche Bank’s move to $420. With earnings scheduled for later in October and key macro releases including CPI data due mid-week, traders price in elevated volatility for the October 16 close. The dispersed probabilities—led by >$405 at 18% and <$360 at 15.5%—reflect competing forces of delivery momentum and sector rotation against stretched valuations near 350x trailing earnings and broader equity sensitivity to interest-rate expectations.