Market icon

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 7

Market icon

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 7

$1,323,045 Vol.

Jun 30, 2025
Polymarket

$1,323,045 Vol.

Polymarket

Chopsticks catch Super Heavy?

$430,029 Vol.

Yes

Super Heavy explodes?

$130,192 Vol.

No

Reaches space?

$91,044 Vol.

Yes

Successful splash down?

$56,507 Vol.

No

Super Heavy survives re-entry?

$51,819 Vol.

Yes

Trump attends launch?

$80,873 Vol.

No

Launch by Jan 10?

$127,692 Vol.

No

Launch by Jan 15?

$50,103 Vol.

No

Launch before February?

$304,785 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during it's landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the seventh Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the seventh Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the seventh launch, and this market will stay open until the seventh launch has occurred. If the seventh launch has not occurred by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the seventh launch does not occur by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test flight successfully reaches an altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. This market pertains to the seventh Starship launch - if the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the seventh StarShip launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the seventh launch, and this market will stay open until the seventh launch has occurred - if the seventh launch has not occurred by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No". The outcome will be corroborated by examining SpaceX’s official video feed of the launch (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market pertains to the seventh Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the seventh Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the seventh launch, and this market will stay open until the seventh launch has occurred. If the seventh launch has not occurred by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test flight re-enters the Earth's atmosphere without experiencing a rapid unscheduled disassembly (RUD). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market pertains to the seventh Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the seventh Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the seventh launch, and this market will stay open until the seventh launch has occurred. If the seventh launch has not occurred by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." If it is unclear and/or cannot be determined whether the booster experienced RUD before or after re-entry, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald attends the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test launch, currently scheduled to take place in mid January. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Attending the test is defined as being in physical attendance within proximity of the launch (e.g. Trump attending the 6th launch would count https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/19/trump-attendings-spacex-launch-elon-musk-starship-.html). This market pertains to the seventh Starship launch attempt. This market will resolve based on any attempted test regardless of if the rocket lifts off the pad. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.If any SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad between January 1, 2025, and January 10, 2025, 11:59 PM CST, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If any SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad between January 1, 2025, and January 15, 2025, 11:59 PM CST, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 7th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by January 31, 2025, ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during it's landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.

This market pertains to the seventh Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the seventh Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the seventh launch, and this market will stay open until the seventh launch has occurred. If the seventh launch has not occurred by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
音量
$1,323,045
終了日
Jan 16, 2025
マーケット開始日
Jan 3, 2025, 4:33 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during it's landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the seventh Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the seventh Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the seventh launch, and this market will stay open until the seventh launch has occurred. If the seventh launch has not occurred by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

提案された結果: Yes

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during it's landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the seventh Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the seventh Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the seventh launch, and this market will stay open until the seventh launch has occurred. If the seventh launch has not occurred by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the seventh launch does not occur by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test flight successfully reaches an altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. This market pertains to the seventh Starship launch - if the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the seventh StarShip launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the seventh launch, and this market will stay open until the seventh launch has occurred - if the seventh launch has not occurred by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No". The outcome will be corroborated by examining SpaceX’s official video feed of the launch (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market pertains to the seventh Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the seventh Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the seventh launch, and this market will stay open until the seventh launch has occurred. If the seventh launch has not occurred by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test flight re-enters the Earth's atmosphere without experiencing a rapid unscheduled disassembly (RUD). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market pertains to the seventh Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the seventh Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the seventh launch, and this market will stay open until the seventh launch has occurred. If the seventh launch has not occurred by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." If it is unclear and/or cannot be determined whether the booster experienced RUD before or after re-entry, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald attends the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test launch, currently scheduled to take place in mid January. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Attending the test is defined as being in physical attendance within proximity of the launch (e.g. Trump attending the 6th launch would count https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/19/trump-attendings-spacex-launch-elon-musk-starship-.html). This market pertains to the seventh Starship launch attempt. This market will resolve based on any attempted test regardless of if the rocket lifts off the pad. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.If any SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad between January 1, 2025, and January 10, 2025, 11:59 PM CST, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If any SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad between January 1, 2025, and January 15, 2025, 11:59 PM CST, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 7th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by January 31, 2025, ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「SpaceX Starship Flight Test 7」はPolymarket上の9個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「Chopsticks catch Super Heavy?」で100%、次いで「Reaches space?」が100%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、100¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に100%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「SpaceX Starship Flight Test 7」は$1.3 millionの総取引量を生み出しています(Jan 3, 2025のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「SpaceX Starship Flight Test 7」で取引するには、このページに記載されている9個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「SpaceX Starship Flight Test 7」の現在のフロントランナーは「Chopsticks catch Super Heavy?」で100%であり、市場がこの結果に100%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「Reaches space?」で100%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「SpaceX Starship Flight Test 7」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。