Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) at 95% implied probability to claim victory in the upcoming South Korea National Assembly by-elections, driven by dominant polling leads for its candidates in the contested districts—such as those vacated by resignations—and the People Power Party's (PPP) persistent weaknesses amid President Yoon Suk Yeol's sub-30% approval ratings, exacerbated by recent first lady scandals and party infighting. Fresh developments include DP's strategic nominations of popular local figures and PPP's failure to rebound despite campaign pushes, aligning with historical by-election patterns favoring opposition strength in urban and swing areas. Though commanding, an upset could stem from high conservative turnout, a major DP gaffe, or coalition support for smaller parties like the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP), but such shifts remain low-probability given current trajectories.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日共に民主党（DP） 95.0%
改革党（RP） 2.8%
再建コリア党（RKP） 2.6%
進歩党（PP） 2.2%
NEW
NEW
Jun 3, 2026
国民の力（PPP）
2%
共に民主党（DP）
95%
再建コリア党（RKP）
3%
進歩党（PP）
2%
改革党（RP）
3%
共に民主党（DP） 95.0%
改革党（RP） 2.8%
再建コリア党（RKP） 2.6%
進歩党（PP） 2.2%
NEW
NEW
Jun 3, 2026
国民の力（PPP）
$0 Vol.
2%
共に民主党（DP）
$0 Vol.
95%
再建コリア党（RKP）
$0 Vol.
3%
進歩党（PP）
$0 Vol.
2%
改革党（RP）
$0 Vol.
3%
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) at 95% implied probability to claim victory in the upcoming South Korea National Assembly by-elections, driven by dominant polling leads for its candidates in the contested districts—such as those vacated by resignations—and the People Power Party's (PPP) persistent weaknesses amid President Yoon Suk Yeol's sub-30% approval ratings, exacerbated by recent first lady scandals and party infighting. Fresh developments include DP's strategic nominations of popular local figures and PPP's failure to rebound despite campaign pushes, aligning with historical by-election patterns favoring opposition strength in urban and swing areas. Though commanding, an upset could stem from high conservative turnout, a major DP gaffe, or coalition support for smaller parties like the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP), but such shifts remain low-probability given current trajectories.
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
マーケット開始日： Feb 12, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
Jun 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 12, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) at 95% implied probability to claim victory in the upcoming South Korea National Assembly by-elections, driven by dominant polling leads for its candidates in the contested districts—such as those vacated by resignations—and the People Power Party's (PPP) persistent weaknesses amid President Yoon Suk Yeol's sub-30% approval ratings, exacerbated by recent first lady scandals and party infighting. Fresh developments include DP's strategic nominations of popular local figures and PPP's failure to rebound despite campaign pushes, aligning with historical by-election patterns favoring opposition strength in urban and swing areas. Though commanding, an upset could stem from high conservative turnout, a major DP gaffe, or coalition support for smaller parties like the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP), but such shifts remain low-probability given current trajectories.
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
音量
$0終了日
Jun 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 12, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) at 95% implied probability to claim victory in the upcoming South Korea National Assembly by-elections, driven by dominant polling leads for its candidates in the contested districts—such as those vacated by resignations—and the People Power Party's (PPP) persistent weaknesses amid President Yoon Suk Yeol's sub-30% approval ratings, exacerbated by recent first lady scandals and party infighting. Fresh developments include DP's strategic nominations of popular local figures and PPP's failure to rebound despite campaign pushes, aligning with historical by-election patterns favoring opposition strength in urban and swing areas. Though commanding, an upset could stem from high conservative turnout, a major DP gaffe, or coalition support for smaller parties like the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP), but such shifts remain low-probability given current trajectories.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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