Trader consensus on Polymarket prices silver's June settlement below $50 at 16.5% implied probability, anchored by a strong U.S. dollar index above 105 and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts amid persistent inflation above 3%. Spot silver trades near $31/oz, with June COMEX futures (SI=M) implying modest upside from current levels, pressured by ample mine supply from top producers like Mexico offsetting solar-driven industrial demand. Closely trailing $60-$70 (14.5%) and $50-$60 (13%) odds reflect bets on gold correlation (currently ~$2,650/oz) and potential China stimulus spillovers, but differentiate on June 12 FOMC signals and July 11 CPI release—traders wagering real capital eye 2% threshold breaches for breakout momentum amid historical June averages under $35.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日50ドル未満 17%
$50~$60 14.9%
$60-$70 14.6%
$70~$80 12.3%
$122,347 Vol.
$122,347 Vol.
50ドル未満
17%
$50~$60
15%
$60-$70
15%
$70~$80
12%
80~90ドル
11%
90~100ドル
10%
$100〜$115
10%
115ドル超
12%
50ドル未満 17%
$50~$60 14.9%
$60-$70 14.6%
$70~$80 12.3%
$122,347 Vol.
$122,347 Vol.
50ドル未満
17%
$50~$60
15%
$60-$70
15%
$70~$80
12%
80~90ドル
11%
90~100ドル
10%
$100〜$115
10%
115ドル超
12%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.
マーケット開始日: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices silver's June settlement below $50 at 16.5% implied probability, anchored by a strong U.S. dollar index above 105 and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts amid persistent inflation above 3%. Spot silver trades near $31/oz, with June COMEX futures (SI=M) implying modest upside from current levels, pressured by ample mine supply from top producers like Mexico offsetting solar-driven industrial demand. Closely trailing $60-$70 (14.5%) and $50-$60 (13%) odds reflect bets on gold correlation (currently ~$2,650/oz) and potential China stimulus spillovers, but differentiate on June 12 FOMC signals and July 11 CPI release—traders wagering real capital eye 2% threshold breaches for breakout momentum amid historical June averages under $35.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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