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選挙·ペンシルベニア州予備選挙

PA -10民主党予備選挙優勝者

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選挙·ペンシルベニア州予備選挙

PA -10民主党予備選挙優勝者

ジャネル・ステルソン 89%

ジャスティン・ダグラス 8%

ジェイソン・キャス 2.7%

マイケル・ロビンソン <1%

Polymarket

$12,692 Vol.

ジャネル・ステルソン 89%

ジャスティン・ダグラス 8%

ジェイソン・キャス 2.7%

マイケル・ロビンソン <1%

Polymarket

$12,692 Vol.

ジャネル・ステルソン

$2,778 Vol.

89%

ジャスティン・ダグラス

$586 Vol.

8%

ジェイソン・キャス

$8,045 Vol.

3%

マイケル・ロビンソン

$584 Vol.

1%

ウィリアム・リリッチ

$699 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Janelle Stelson dominates trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District Democratic primary on May 19, driven by her strong name recognition from narrowly losing the 2024 general election to incumbent Republican Scott Perry by 1.2 points, superior fundraising with over $2.1 million raised and $1.5 million cash on hand through late 2025, and early DCCC "Red to Blue" program inclusion in February 2026. Recent filings by March 10 confirmed the field including Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas at 7.5%, who secured a grassroots endorsement from One PA on March 16 but trails in resources. Lesser-known challengers Jason Cass, Michael Robinson, and William Lillich hold minimal shares amid Pennsylvania's closed primary system, with no public primary polls shifting sentiment; late momentum or turnout could narrow gaps ahead of absentee and early voting.

Janelle Stelson dominates trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District Democratic primary on May 19, driven by her strong name recognition from narrowly losing the 2024 general election to incumbent Republican Scott Perry by 1.2 points, superior fundraising with over $2.1 million raised and $1.5 million cash on hand through late 2025, and early DCCC "Red to Blue" program inclusion in February 2026. Recent filings by March 10 confirmed the field including Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas at 7.5%, who secured a grassroots endorsement from One PA on March 16 but trails in resources. Lesser-known challengers Jason Cass, Michael Robinson, and William Lillich hold minimal shares amid Pennsylvania's closed primary system, with no public primary polls shifting sentiment; late momentum or turnout could narrow gaps ahead of absentee and early voting.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Janelle Stelson dominates trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District Democratic primary on May 19, driven by her strong name recognition from narrowly losing the 2024 general election to incumbent Republican Scott Perry by 1.2 points, superior fundraising with over $2.1 million raised and $1.5 million cash on hand through late 2025, and early DCCC "Red to Blue" program inclusion in February 2026. Recent filings by March 10 confirmed the field including Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas at 7.5%, who secured a grassroots endorsement from One PA on March 16 but trails in resources. Lesser-known challengers Jason Cass, Michael Robinson, and William Lillich hold minimal shares amid Pennsylvania's closed primary system, with no public primary polls shifting sentiment; late momentum or turnout could narrow gaps ahead of absentee and early voting.

Janelle Stelson dominates trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District Democratic primary on May 19, driven by her strong name recognition from narrowly losing the 2024 general election to incumbent Republican Scott Perry by 1.2 points, superior fundraising with over $2.1 million raised and $1.5 million cash on hand through late 2025, and early DCCC "Red to Blue" program inclusion in February 2026. Recent filings by March 10 confirmed the field including Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas at 7.5%, who secured a grassroots endorsement from One PA on March 16 but trails in resources. Lesser-known challengers Jason Cass, Michael Robinson, and William Lillich hold minimal shares amid Pennsylvania's closed primary system, with no public primary polls shifting sentiment; late momentum or turnout could narrow gaps ahead of absentee and early voting.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「PA -10民主党予備選挙優勝者」はPolymarket上の5個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ジャネル・ステルソン」で89%、次いで「ジャスティン・ダグラス」が8%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、89¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に89%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「PA -10民主党予備選挙優勝者」は$12.7Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 3, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「PA -10民主党予備選挙優勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている5個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「PA -10民主党予備選挙優勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「ジャネル・ステルソン」で89%であり、市場がこの結果に89%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ジャスティン・ダグラス」で8%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「PA -10民主党予備選挙優勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。