**Former President Barack Obama's absence from any federal indictment, arrest, or active DOJ or FBI investigation drives the 91.8% trader consensus against arrest before 2027.** No formal charges have emerged despite Trump administration rhetoric, including DNI Tulsi Gabbard's calls for probes into Obama, James Comey, John Brennan, and James Clapper over alleged Russia collusion intelligence fabrication, and recent DOJ interviews of ex-intelligence officials like Brennan. Obama's May 14 statement urging codification of Justice Department independence underscores norms against presidential interference in prosecutions. With no special counsel appointed, court filings, or procedural advancements in the past 30 days, structural barriers—including precedents against charging ex-presidents without extraordinary evidence—bolster the low-risk assessment among skin-in-the-game traders. Late-breaking legal developments remain the sole potential shifter.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Former President Barack Obama's absence from any federal indictment, arrest, or active DOJ or FBI investigation drives the 91.8% trader consensus against arrest before 2027.** No formal charges have emerged despite Trump administration rhetoric, including DNI Tulsi Gabbard's calls for probes into Obama, James Comey, John Brennan, and James Clapper over alleged Russia collusion intelligence fabrication, and recent DOJ interviews of ex-intelligence officials like Brennan. Obama's May 14 statement urging codification of Justice Department independence underscores norms against presidential interference in prosecutions. With no special counsel appointed, court filings, or procedural advancements in the past 30 days, structural barriers—including precedents against charging ex-presidents without extraordinary evidence—bolster the low-risk assessment among skin-in-the-game traders. Late-breaking legal developments remain the sole potential shifter.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
音量
$7,481終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Former President Barack Obama's absence from any federal indictment, arrest, or active DOJ or FBI investigation drives the 91.8% trader consensus against arrest before 2027.** No formal charges have emerged despite Trump administration rhetoric, including DNI Tulsi Gabbard's calls for probes into Obama, James Comey, John Brennan, and James Clapper over alleged Russia collusion intelligence fabrication, and recent DOJ interviews of ex-intelligence officials like Brennan. Obama's May 14 statement urging codification of Justice Department independence underscores norms against presidential interference in prosecutions. With no special counsel appointed, court filings, or procedural advancements in the past 30 days, structural barriers—including precedents against charging ex-presidents without extraordinary evidence—bolster the low-risk assessment among skin-in-the-game traders. Late-breaking legal developments remain the sole potential shifter.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$7,481終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Former President Barack Obama's absence from any federal indictment, arrest, or active DOJ or FBI investigation drives the 91.8% trader consensus against arrest before 2027.** No formal charges have emerged despite Trump administration rhetoric, including DNI Tulsi Gabbard's calls for probes into Obama, James Comey, John Brennan, and James Clapper over alleged Russia collusion intelligence fabrication, and recent DOJ interviews of ex-intelligence officials like Brennan. Obama's May 14 statement urging codification of Justice Department independence underscores norms against presidential interference in prosecutions. With no special counsel appointed, court filings, or procedural advancements in the past 30 days, structural barriers—including precedents against charging ex-presidents without extraordinary evidence—bolster the low-risk assessment among skin-in-the-game traders. Late-breaking legal developments remain the sole potential shifter.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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