Ongoing outbreaks of Ebola Bundibugyo virus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and neighboring countries, along with H5N1 avian influenza in U.S. cattle and sporadic human cases, remain under active surveillance by the WHO and national agencies without evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission or pandemic-scale spread. Mpox continues in multiple regions but shows no signs of rapid global escalation. Post-COVID enhancements in genomic surveillance, the WHO Pandemic Agreement, and improved pathogen-sharing systems support early detection, while current epidemiological data indicate low probability of a novel pathogen achieving the transmissibility and virulence thresholds for a new pandemic before 2028. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of these contained risks and preparedness gains.
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