Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 27% implied probability to Meta releasing its "Mango" image and video AI model by June 30, 2026, reflecting skepticism after initial December 2025 Wall Street Journal reports of an early-year launch alongside the text-focused "Avocado" gave way to March New York Times disclosures of delays due to underwhelming Avocado benchmarks. April's debut of Muse Spark—a natively multimodal model from Meta Superintelligence Labs under new Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang—signaled rebuilt pretraining infrastructure and competitive benchmarks against Opus and Gemini, but it lacks the "Mango" codename or explicit image/video frontier focus required for resolution. With Q2 earnings approaching and Meta prioritizing open-source Llama upgrades amid rivalry from Google and OpenAI, traders anticipate further timeline slips unless integrated into platforms like Instagram.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$25,340 Vol.
2026/06/30
6月30日
26%
$25,340 Vol.
6月30日
$5,546 Vol.
26%
Meta is developing a new frontier image and video-focused AI model codenamed “Mango”. You can read more about that here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation.
A qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify.
Upgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g. Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public.
A publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 27% implied probability to Meta releasing its "Mango" image and video AI model by June 30, 2026, reflecting skepticism after initial December 2025 Wall Street Journal reports of an early-year launch alongside the text-focused "Avocado" gave way to March New York Times disclosures of delays due to underwhelming Avocado benchmarks. April's debut of Muse Spark—a natively multimodal model from Meta Superintelligence Labs under new Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang—signaled rebuilt pretraining infrastructure and competitive benchmarks against Opus and Gemini, but it lacks the "Mango" codename or explicit image/video frontier focus required for resolution. With Q2 earnings approaching and Meta prioritizing open-source Llama upgrades amid rivalry from Google and OpenAI, traders anticipate further timeline slips unless integrated into platforms like Instagram.
Meta is developing a new frontier image and video-focused AI model codenamed “Mango”. You can read more about that here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation.
A qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify.
Upgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g. Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public.
A publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation.
A qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify.
Upgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g. Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public.
A publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Dec 22, 2025, 1:23 PM ET
音量
$25,340終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 22, 2025, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Meta is developing a new frontier image and video-focused AI model codenamed “Mango”. You can read more about that here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation.
A qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify.
Upgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g. Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public.
A publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 27% implied probability to Meta releasing its "Mango" image and video AI model by June 30, 2026, reflecting skepticism after initial December 2025 Wall Street Journal reports of an early-year launch alongside the text-focused "Avocado" gave way to March New York Times disclosures of delays due to underwhelming Avocado benchmarks. April's debut of Muse Spark—a natively multimodal model from Meta Superintelligence Labs under new Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang—signaled rebuilt pretraining infrastructure and competitive benchmarks against Opus and Gemini, but it lacks the "Mango" codename or explicit image/video frontier focus required for resolution. With Q2 earnings approaching and Meta prioritizing open-source Llama upgrades amid rivalry from Google and OpenAI, traders anticipate further timeline slips unless integrated into platforms like Instagram.
Meta is developing a new frontier image and video-focused AI model codenamed “Mango”. You can read more about that here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation.
A qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify.
Upgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g. Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public.
A publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation.
A qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify.
Upgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g. Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public.
A publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$25,340終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 22, 2025, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 27% implied probability to Meta releasing its "Mango" image and video AI model by June 30, 2026, reflecting skepticism after initial December 2025 Wall Street Journal reports of an early-year launch alongside the text-focused "Avocado" gave way to March New York Times disclosures of delays due to underwhelming Avocado benchmarks. April's debut of Muse Spark—a natively multimodal model from Meta Superintelligence Labs under new Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang—signaled rebuilt pretraining infrastructure and competitive benchmarks against Opus and Gemini, but it lacks the "Mango" codename or explicit image/video frontier focus required for resolution. With Q2 earnings approaching and Meta prioritizing open-source Llama upgrades amid rivalry from Google and OpenAI, traders anticipate further timeline slips unless integrated into platforms like Instagram.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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