Escalating Israel-Hezbollah clashes, including Hezbollah rocket barrages and Israeli strikes killing senior commanders, have intensified scrutiny on Cyprus following Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's June warning that the island would face retaliation for any facilitation of Israeli operations. Nicosia has repeatedly denied permitting military overflights or arms transshipments via Larnaca airport, emphasizing its neutral stance amid the Gaza conflict. Iran's October 1 missile attack on Israel and subsequent Israeli responses heightened regional risks, yet no confirmed Hezbollah strike preparations targeting Cyprus have materialized. Traders monitor trader consensus for low implied probability, with upcoming Israeli ground maneuvers in Lebanon and potential UN-mediated ceasefires as pivotal near-term drivers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$0.00 Vol.
Mar 7, 2026
3月7日
いいえ
3月15日
いいえ
$0.00 Vol.
3月7日
$0 Vol.
いいえ
3月15日
$0 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Cyprus’s ground territory by March 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces or any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact Cyprus’s ground territory.
Cyprus’s ground territory refers to (i) all land on the island of Cyprus, including territory under the de facto control of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, UN buffer zones, and military bases under the sovereign control of other nations, and (ii) all land internationally recognized as part of the Republic of Cyprus, including all territory under de facto Republic of Cyprus administration as of March 2, 2026.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Cyprus’s soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Cyprus’s ground territory by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces or any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact Cyprus’s ground territory.
Cyprus’s ground territory refers to (i) all land on the island of Cyprus, including territory under the de facto control of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, UN buffer zones, and military bases under the sovereign control of other nations, and (ii) all land internationally recognized as part of the Republic of Cyprus, including all territory under de facto Republic of Cyprus administration as of March 2, 2026.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Cyprus’s soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Cyprus’s ground territory by March 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces or any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact Cyprus’s ground territory.
Cyprus’s ground territory refers to (i) all land on the island of Cyprus, including territory under the de facto control of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, UN buffer zones, and military bases under the sovereign control of other nations, and (ii) all land internationally recognized as part of the Republic of Cyprus, including all territory under de facto Republic of Cyprus administration as of March 2, 2026.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Cyprus’s soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Cyprus’s ground territory by March 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces or any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact Cyprus’s ground territory.
Cyprus’s ground territory refers to (i) all land on the island of Cyprus, including territory under the de facto control of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, UN buffer zones, and military bases under the sovereign control of other nations, and (ii) all land internationally recognized as part of the Republic of Cyprus, including all territory under de facto Republic of Cyprus administration as of March 2, 2026.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Cyprus’s soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces or any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact Cyprus’s ground territory.
Cyprus’s ground territory refers to (i) all land on the island of Cyprus, including territory under the de facto control of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, UN buffer zones, and military bases under the sovereign control of other nations, and (ii) all land internationally recognized as part of the Republic of Cyprus, including all territory under de facto Republic of Cyprus administration as of March 2, 2026.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Cyprus’s soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Mar 2, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
Mar 7, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 2, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Cyprus’s ground territory by March 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces or any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact Cyprus’s ground territory.
Cyprus’s ground territory refers to (i) all land on the island of Cyprus, including territory under the de facto control of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, UN buffer zones, and military bases under the sovereign control of other nations, and (ii) all land internationally recognized as part of the Republic of Cyprus, including all territory under de facto Republic of Cyprus administration as of March 2, 2026.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Cyprus’s soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Cyprus’s ground territory by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces or any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact Cyprus’s ground territory.
Cyprus’s ground territory refers to (i) all land on the island of Cyprus, including territory under the de facto control of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, UN buffer zones, and military bases under the sovereign control of other nations, and (ii) all land internationally recognized as part of the Republic of Cyprus, including all territory under de facto Republic of Cyprus administration as of March 2, 2026.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Cyprus’s soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$0終了日
Mar 7, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 2, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating Israel-Hezbollah clashes, including Hezbollah rocket barrages and Israeli strikes killing senior commanders, have intensified scrutiny on Cyprus following Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's June warning that the island would face retaliation for any facilitation of Israeli operations. Nicosia has repeatedly denied permitting military overflights or arms transshipments via Larnaca airport, emphasizing its neutral stance amid the Gaza conflict. Iran's October 1 missile attack on Israel and subsequent Israeli responses heightened regional risks, yet no confirmed Hezbollah strike preparations targeting Cyprus have materialized. Traders monitor trader consensus for low implied probability, with upcoming Israeli ground maneuvers in Lebanon and potential UN-mediated ceasefires as pivotal near-term drivers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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