President Trump's threats to invoke the Insurrection Act persist amid escalating anti-ICE protests in Minnesota, where demonstrators recently blocked streets, conducted unauthorized license plate checks, and assaulted journalists, echoing January 2026 clashes after federal agent-involved shootings that prompted similar warnings but no deployment. Trader consensus reflects low near-term probabilities—4% by April 30 and 11% by June 30—due to the administration's reliance on executive orders, National Guard activations under governors, and mass deportation logistics without full military mobilization, alongside bipartisan congressional bills like S.2070 to reform and limit the Act's broad authority. Year-end odds at 29% anticipate potential unrest from intensified border security or urban disorder ahead of midterms.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$1,031,878 Vol.
2026/12/31
April 30
4%
6月30日
12%
12月31日
29%
$1,031,878 Vol.
April 30
$409 Vol.
4%
6月30日
$64,241 Vol.
12%
12月31日
$119,281 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's threats to invoke the Insurrection Act persist amid escalating anti-ICE protests in Minnesota, where demonstrators recently blocked streets, conducted unauthorized license plate checks, and assaulted journalists, echoing January 2026 clashes after federal agent-involved shootings that prompted similar warnings but no deployment. Trader consensus reflects low near-term probabilities—4% by April 30 and 11% by June 30—due to the administration's reliance on executive orders, National Guard activations under governors, and mass deportation logistics without full military mobilization, alongside bipartisan congressional bills like S.2070 to reform and limit the Act's broad authority. Year-end odds at 29% anticipate potential unrest from intensified border security or urban disorder ahead of midterms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 10:17 AM ET
音量
$1,031,878終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's threats to invoke the Insurrection Act persist amid escalating anti-ICE protests in Minnesota, where demonstrators recently blocked streets, conducted unauthorized license plate checks, and assaulted journalists, echoing January 2026 clashes after federal agent-involved shootings that prompted similar warnings but no deployment. Trader consensus reflects low near-term probabilities—4% by April 30 and 11% by June 30—due to the administration's reliance on executive orders, National Guard activations under governors, and mass deportation logistics without full military mobilization, alongside bipartisan congressional bills like S.2070 to reform and limit the Act's broad authority. Year-end odds at 29% anticipate potential unrest from intensified border security or urban disorder ahead of midterms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,031,878終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's threats to invoke the Insurrection Act persist amid escalating anti-ICE protests in Minnesota, where demonstrators recently blocked streets, conducted unauthorized license plate checks, and assaulted journalists, echoing January 2026 clashes after federal agent-involved shootings that prompted similar warnings but no deployment. Trader consensus reflects low near-term probabilities—4% by April 30 and 11% by June 30—due to the administration's reliance on executive orders, National Guard activations under governors, and mass deportation logistics without full military mobilization, alongside bipartisan congressional bills like S.2070 to reform and limit the Act's broad authority. Year-end odds at 29% anticipate potential unrest from intensified border security or urban disorder ahead of midterms.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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