Polymarket traders express a fragmented consensus on March nonfarm payrolls, pricing 50k-100k jobs added at a leading 28% implied probability, with 0-50k (22%) and 100k+ (19%) in tight contention amid labor market softening signals. Key drivers include ADP's March private payrolls report of 184k additions overshadowed by 71k downward revisions to prior months, initial jobless claims rising to 222k for the March 30 week, and February JOLTS openings plunging 4% to 8.756 million—the lowest since 2021. These contrast economist consensus near 200k, highlighting prediction market skepticism on sustained momentum ahead of Friday's Bureau of Labor Statistics release, which incorporates annual benchmark adjustments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日5万～10万 28%
0 ～ 50k 22%
10万件以上 21%
-5万〜0 9%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
<-15万人
4%
-15万～-10万
4%
-10万～-5万
6%
-5万〜0
9%
0 ～ 50k
22%
5万～10万
28%
10万件以上
21%
5万～10万 28%
0 ～ 50k 22%
10万件以上 21%
-5万〜0 9%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
<-15万人
$1,145 Vol.
4%
-15万～-10万
$569 Vol.
4%
-10万～-5万
$666 Vol.
6%
-5万〜0
$722 Vol.
9%
0 ～ 50k
$1,182 Vol.
22%
5万～10万
$3,859 Vol.
28%
10万件以上
$1,187 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmPolymarket traders express a fragmented consensus on March nonfarm payrolls, pricing 50k-100k jobs added at a leading 28% implied probability, with 0-50k (22%) and 100k+ (19%) in tight contention amid labor market softening signals. Key drivers include ADP's March private payrolls report of 184k additions overshadowed by 71k downward revisions to prior months, initial jobless claims rising to 222k for the March 30 week, and February JOLTS openings plunging 4% to 8.756 million—the lowest since 2021. These contrast economist consensus near 200k, highlighting prediction market skepticism on sustained momentum ahead of Friday's Bureau of Labor Statistics release, which incorporates annual benchmark adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
マーケット開始日： Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
音量
$9,329終了日
Apr 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmPolymarket traders express a fragmented consensus on March nonfarm payrolls, pricing 50k-100k jobs added at a leading 28% implied probability, with 0-50k (22%) and 100k+ (19%) in tight contention amid labor market softening signals. Key drivers include ADP's March private payrolls report of 184k additions overshadowed by 71k downward revisions to prior months, initial jobless claims rising to 222k for the March 30 week, and February JOLTS openings plunging 4% to 8.756 million—the lowest since 2021. These contrast economist consensus near 200k, highlighting prediction market skepticism on sustained momentum ahead of Friday's Bureau of Labor Statistics release, which incorporates annual benchmark adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
音量
$9,329終了日
Apr 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders express a fragmented consensus on March nonfarm payrolls, pricing 50k-100k jobs added at a leading 28% implied probability, with 0-50k (22%) and 100k+ (19%) in tight contention amid labor market softening signals. Key drivers include ADP's March private payrolls report of 184k additions overshadowed by 71k downward revisions to prior months, initial jobless claims rising to 222k for the March 30 week, and February JOLTS openings plunging 4% to 8.756 million—the lowest since 2021. These contrast economist consensus near 200k, highlighting prediction market skepticism on sustained momentum ahead of Friday's Bureau of Labor Statistics release, which incorporates annual benchmark adjustments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問