Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest March nonfarm payrolls rebound into the 50k-100k range at 36.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 100k+ at 35%, after February's surprise -92,000 decline amid manufacturing weakness and federal government cuts. Key differentiators include ADP's +62,000 private payroll print on April 1—aligning with FactSet's ~57,000-60,000 economist median—and falling initial jobless claims to 202,000 for the week ending March 28, indicating underlying stability despite softening hiring trends. ISM manufacturing PMI ticked up to 52.7, but forecast dispersion (30k-65k) keeps the outcome contested ahead of today's 8:30 AM ET Bureau of Labor Statistics release.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日10万件以上 30%
5万～10万 29%
0 ～ 50k 20%
-5万〜0 15%
$23,803 Vol.
$23,803 Vol.
2026/04/03
<-15万人
1%
-15万～-10万
3%
-10万～-5万
1%
-5万〜0
13%
0 ～ 50k
22%
5万～10万
37%
10万件以上
35%
10万件以上 30%
5万～10万 29%
0 ～ 50k 20%
-5万〜0 15%
$23,803 Vol.
$23,803 Vol.
2026/04/03
<-15万人
$3,403 Vol.
1%
-15万～-10万
$1,265 Vol.
3%
-10万～-5万
$1,262 Vol.
1%
-5万〜0
$1,949 Vol.
13%
0 ～ 50k
$1,362 Vol.
22%
5万～10万
$7,019 Vol.
37%
10万件以上
$7,554 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest March nonfarm payrolls rebound into the 50k-100k range at 36.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 100k+ at 35%, after February's surprise -92,000 decline amid manufacturing weakness and federal government cuts. Key differentiators include ADP's +62,000 private payroll print on April 1—aligning with FactSet's ~57,000-60,000 economist median—and falling initial jobless claims to 202,000 for the week ending March 28, indicating underlying stability despite softening hiring trends. ISM manufacturing PMI ticked up to 52.7, but forecast dispersion (30k-65k) keeps the outcome contested ahead of today's 8:30 AM ET Bureau of Labor Statistics release.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
マーケット開始日： Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
音量
$23,803終了日
2026/04/03マーケット開始日
Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest March nonfarm payrolls rebound into the 50k-100k range at 36.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 100k+ at 35%, after February's surprise -92,000 decline amid manufacturing weakness and federal government cuts. Key differentiators include ADP's +62,000 private payroll print on April 1—aligning with FactSet's ~57,000-60,000 economist median—and falling initial jobless claims to 202,000 for the week ending March 28, indicating underlying stability despite softening hiring trends. ISM manufacturing PMI ticked up to 52.7, but forecast dispersion (30k-65k) keeps the outcome contested ahead of today's 8:30 AM ET Bureau of Labor Statistics release.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
音量
$23,803終了日
2026/04/03マーケット開始日
Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest March nonfarm payrolls rebound into the 50k-100k range at 36.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 100k+ at 35%, after February's surprise -92,000 decline amid manufacturing weakness and federal government cuts. Key differentiators include ADP's +62,000 private payroll print on April 1—aligning with FactSet's ~57,000-60,000 economist median—and falling initial jobless claims to 202,000 for the week ending March 28, indicating underlying stability despite softening hiring trends. ISM manufacturing PMI ticked up to 52.7, but forecast dispersion (30k-65k) keeps the outcome contested ahead of today's 8:30 AM ET Bureau of Labor Statistics release.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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