The primary driver behind the 86% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11, 2026 meeting is the sharp upward revision in euro-area inflation forecasts stemming from the Middle East conflict’s impact on energy prices. Recent ECB staff projections and external surveys now anticipate headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, up more than a full percentage point from prior estimates, with energy components surging above 10% in the second half of the year. Following the April 30 hold at 2.00%, policymakers have signaled a data-dependent approach focused on anchoring expectations and limiting second-round effects, while labor markets remain resilient. The June decision will incorporate updated projections and incoming price data, with markets pricing limited odds of larger moves or cuts given the one-off nature of the shock.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25ベーシスポイントの利上げ 86%
No change 12.5%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$349,131 Vol.
$349,131 Vol.
2026/06/11
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
13%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ
86%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
1%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ 86%
No change 12.5%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$349,131 Vol.
$349,131 Vol.
2026/06/11
50+ bps decrease
$60,661 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$63,809 Vol.
<1%
No change
$73,766 Vol.
13%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ
$86,060 Vol.
86%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$64,834 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.The primary driver behind the 86% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11, 2026 meeting is the sharp upward revision in euro-area inflation forecasts stemming from the Middle East conflict’s impact on energy prices. Recent ECB staff projections and external surveys now anticipate headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, up more than a full percentage point from prior estimates, with energy components surging above 10% in the second half of the year. Following the April 30 hold at 2.00%, policymakers have signaled a data-dependent approach focused on anchoring expectations and limiting second-round effects, while labor markets remain resilient. The June decision will incorporate updated projections and incoming price data, with markets pricing limited odds of larger moves or cuts given the one-off nature of the shock.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
音量
$349,131終了日
2026/06/11マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.The primary driver behind the 86% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11, 2026 meeting is the sharp upward revision in euro-area inflation forecasts stemming from the Middle East conflict’s impact on energy prices. Recent ECB staff projections and external surveys now anticipate headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, up more than a full percentage point from prior estimates, with energy components surging above 10% in the second half of the year. Following the April 30 hold at 2.00%, policymakers have signaled a data-dependent approach focused on anchoring expectations and limiting second-round effects, while labor markets remain resilient. The June decision will incorporate updated projections and incoming price data, with markets pricing limited odds of larger moves or cuts given the one-off nature of the shock.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
音量
$349,131終了日
2026/06/11マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The primary driver behind the 86% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11, 2026 meeting is the sharp upward revision in euro-area inflation forecasts stemming from the Middle East conflict’s impact on energy prices. Recent ECB staff projections and external surveys now anticipate headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, up more than a full percentage point from prior estimates, with energy components surging above 10% in the second half of the year. Following the April 30 hold at 2.00%, policymakers have signaled a data-dependent approach focused on anchoring expectations and limiting second-round effects, while labor markets remain resilient. The June decision will incorporate updated projections and incoming price data, with markets pricing limited odds of larger moves or cuts given the one-off nature of the shock.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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