Recent August Core PCE MoM printed at 0.2% versus 0.3% consensus, with the year-over-year rate easing to 3.0% after downward revisions, tempering expectations for a rebound in September. This softer reading, alongside resilient consumer spending and annual benchmark adjustments, has kept trader sentiment balanced, with Polymarket odds nearly even between 0.2% (36%) and 0.3% (33%). Key swing factors include September labor market data, any further revisions to prior months, and FOMC communications ahead of the October 29 release. Markets continue to price probabilities rather than certainties around the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
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