Geopolitical supply disruptions from the ongoing Middle East conflict and de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to dominate crude oil (CL) price dynamics, driving elevated market-implied odds for a June settlement above $84. Production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day in April have triggered sharp global inventory draws, with EIA models projecting an average 8.5 million b/d decline in 2Q26 that supports Brent prices near $106 per barrel through June. This supply tightness outweighs softer demand growth forecasts and any modest OPEC+ quota adjustments, sustaining a risk premium in WTI benchmarks. Trader consensus reflects expectations that flows may resume gradually later in the month, though persistent disruptions and weekly inventory data releases remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution of settlement outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日原油（ CL ）は6月に何に落ち着きますか？
原油（ CL ）は6月に何に落ち着きますか？
84ドル超 61%
$77〜$84 21%
$70〜$77 7.9%
$63〜$70 3.4%
$198,234 Vol.
$198,234 Vol.
2026/06/30
$42未満
<1%
$42～$49
<1%
$49-$56
1%
$56～$63
1%
$63〜$70
3%
$70〜$77
8%
$77〜$84
21%
84ドル超
61%
84ドル超 61%
$77〜$84 21%
$70〜$77 7.9%
$63〜$70 3.4%
$198,234 Vol.
$198,234 Vol.
2026/06/30
$42未満
$20,386 Vol.
<1%
$42～$49
$9,599 Vol.
<1%
$49-$56
$11,396 Vol.
1%
$56～$63
$11,997 Vol.
1%
$63〜$70
$26,652 Vol.
3%
$70〜$77
$15,620 Vol.
8%
$77〜$84
$16,816 Vol.
21%
84ドル超
$85,784 Vol.
61%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical supply disruptions from the ongoing Middle East conflict and de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to dominate crude oil (CL) price dynamics, driving elevated market-implied odds for a June settlement above $84. Production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day in April have triggered sharp global inventory draws, with EIA models projecting an average 8.5 million b/d decline in 2Q26 that supports Brent prices near $106 per barrel through June. This supply tightness outweighs softer demand growth forecasts and any modest OPEC+ quota adjustments, sustaining a risk premium in WTI benchmarks. Trader consensus reflects expectations that flows may resume gradually later in the month, though persistent disruptions and weekly inventory data releases remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution of settlement outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
マーケット開始日： Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
音量
$198,234終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical supply disruptions from the ongoing Middle East conflict and de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to dominate crude oil (CL) price dynamics, driving elevated market-implied odds for a June settlement above $84. Production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day in April have triggered sharp global inventory draws, with EIA models projecting an average 8.5 million b/d decline in 2Q26 that supports Brent prices near $106 per barrel through June. This supply tightness outweighs softer demand growth forecasts and any modest OPEC+ quota adjustments, sustaining a risk premium in WTI benchmarks. Trader consensus reflects expectations that flows may resume gradually later in the month, though persistent disruptions and weekly inventory data releases remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution of settlement outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
音量
$198,234終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETGeopolitical supply disruptions from the ongoing Middle East conflict and de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to dominate crude oil (CL) price dynamics, driving elevated market-implied odds for a June settlement above $84. Production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day in April have triggered sharp global inventory draws, with EIA models projecting an average 8.5 million b/d decline in 2Q26 that supports Brent prices near $106 per barrel through June. This supply tightness outweighs softer demand growth forecasts and any modest OPEC+ quota adjustments, sustaining a risk premium in WTI benchmarks. Trader consensus reflects expectations that flows may resume gradually later in the month, though persistent disruptions and weekly inventory data releases remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution of settlement outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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