Geopolitical supply disruptions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver behind the 68% market-implied odds on crude oil settling above $84 in June. WTI futures have traded near $97 per barrel in late May amid production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day across the Middle East, triggering sharp inventory draws that the EIA projects at an average 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter. This tightness has produced steep backwardation in the futures curve and reinforced trader consensus on elevated near-term prices, even as minor de-escalation hopes in peace talks have prompted limited pullbacks. Key upcoming catalysts include any resumption of Hormuz flows or shifts in OPEC+ output that could alter the deficit before month-end resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日原油（ CL ）は6月に何に落ち着きますか？
原油（ CL ）は6月に何に落ち着きますか？
84ドル超 69%
$77〜$84 17%
$70〜$77 5.8%
$63〜$70 1.0%
$194,142 Vol.
$194,142 Vol.
2026/06/30
$42未満
<1%
$42～$49
<1%
$49-$56
1%
$56～$63
1%
$63〜$70
1%
$70〜$77
6%
$77〜$84
17%
84ドル超
69%
84ドル超 69%
$77〜$84 17%
$70〜$77 5.8%
$63〜$70 1.0%
$194,142 Vol.
$194,142 Vol.
2026/06/30
$42未満
$20,386 Vol.
<1%
$42～$49
$9,599 Vol.
<1%
$49-$56
$11,396 Vol.
1%
$56～$63
$10,901 Vol.
1%
$63〜$70
$25,097 Vol.
1%
$70〜$77
$15,345 Vol.
6%
$77〜$84
$16,780 Vol.
17%
84ドル超
$84,638 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical supply disruptions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver behind the 68% market-implied odds on crude oil settling above $84 in June. WTI futures have traded near $97 per barrel in late May amid production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day across the Middle East, triggering sharp inventory draws that the EIA projects at an average 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter. This tightness has produced steep backwardation in the futures curve and reinforced trader consensus on elevated near-term prices, even as minor de-escalation hopes in peace talks have prompted limited pullbacks. Key upcoming catalysts include any resumption of Hormuz flows or shifts in OPEC+ output that could alter the deficit before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
マーケット開始日： Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
音量
$194,142終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical supply disruptions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver behind the 68% market-implied odds on crude oil settling above $84 in June. WTI futures have traded near $97 per barrel in late May amid production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day across the Middle East, triggering sharp inventory draws that the EIA projects at an average 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter. This tightness has produced steep backwardation in the futures curve and reinforced trader consensus on elevated near-term prices, even as minor de-escalation hopes in peace talks have prompted limited pullbacks. Key upcoming catalysts include any resumption of Hormuz flows or shifts in OPEC+ output that could alter the deficit before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
音量
$194,142終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETGeopolitical supply disruptions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver behind the 68% market-implied odds on crude oil settling above $84 in June. WTI futures have traded near $97 per barrel in late May amid production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day across the Middle East, triggering sharp inventory draws that the EIA projects at an average 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter. This tightness has produced steep backwardation in the futures curve and reinforced trader consensus on elevated near-term prices, even as minor de-escalation hopes in peace talks have prompted limited pullbacks. Key upcoming catalysts include any resumption of Hormuz flows or shifts in OPEC+ output that could alter the deficit before month-end resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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