Recent USDA data peg the share of U.S. hog inventory in moderate or greater drought (D1+) at 23% as of late September 2026, placing the figure near the boundary between the 15–24% and 25–34% ranges. Trader odds remain evenly split because short-term precipitation forecasts for key producing states—Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Illinois—show mixed signals, with some models indicating additional relief from systems moving through the Midwest while others suggest limited change or localized drying. National drought coverage stands near 46%, with recent improvements in the Southern Plains offset by persistence or intensification in parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. The next U.S. Drought Monitor update, incorporating conditions through mid-October, will directly inform the week-of-October-13 resolution.