With the 2026 House midterms more than 23 months away, trader consensus favors "Other" at 45.5% amid high uncertainty over exact popular vote margins, reflecting the long timeline and unpredictable shifts in voter sentiment. Republicans currently hold a slim House majority following their 2024 victories, securing trifecta control with the presidency and Senate, yet historical midterm patterns show the president's party losing the national House popular vote by an average of around 8 points. Early generic ballot polls, though sparse, indicate Democrats holding a narrow edge of 1-3 points, driving volume toward modest Democratic margins like 6-8% (20%), while Republican wins remain lower probability due to incumbency disadvantages in battleground districts. Key upcoming catalysts include economic trends, approval ratings, and early primaries starting in 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Democrats 6-8% 19%
Democrats 8-10% 14%
Democrats 2-4% 13.8%
Democrats 4-6% 13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
2%
Democrats 14-16%
7%
Democrats 12-14%
4%
Democrats 10-12%
12%
Democrats 8-10%
14%
Democrats 6-8%
19%
Democrats 4-6%
13%
Democrats 2-4%
14%
Democrats 0-2%
12%
Republicans 0-2%
6%
Republicans 2-4%
10%
Republicans 4-6%
4%
Republicans 6%+
4%
Democrats 6-8% 19%
Democrats 8-10% 14%
Democrats 2-4% 13.8%
Democrats 4-6% 13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$0 Vol.
2%
Democrats 14-16%
$0 Vol.
7%
Democrats 12-14%
$0 Vol.
4%
Democrats 10-12%
$0 Vol.
12%
Democrats 8-10%
$0 Vol.
14%
Democrats 6-8%
$0 Vol.
19%
Democrats 4-6%
$0 Vol.
13%
Democrats 2-4%
$687 Vol.
14%
Democrats 0-2%
$806 Vol.
12%
Republicans 0-2%
$0 Vol.
6%
Republicans 2-4%
$0 Vol.
10%
Republicans 4-6%
$0 Vol.
4%
Republicans 6%+
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.With the 2026 House midterms more than 23 months away, trader consensus favors "Other" at 45.5% amid high uncertainty over exact popular vote margins, reflecting the long timeline and unpredictable shifts in voter sentiment. Republicans currently hold a slim House majority following their 2024 victories, securing trifecta control with the presidency and Senate, yet historical midterm patterns show the president's party losing the national House popular vote by an average of around 8 points. Early generic ballot polls, though sparse, indicate Democrats holding a narrow edge of 1-3 points, driving volume toward modest Democratic margins like 6-8% (20%), while Republican wins remain lower probability due to incumbency disadvantages in battleground districts. Key upcoming catalysts include economic trends, approval ratings, and early primaries starting in 2026.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
マーケット開始日： Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
音量
$1,493終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.With the 2026 House midterms more than 23 months away, trader consensus favors "Other" at 45.5% amid high uncertainty over exact popular vote margins, reflecting the long timeline and unpredictable shifts in voter sentiment. Republicans currently hold a slim House majority following their 2024 victories, securing trifecta control with the presidency and Senate, yet historical midterm patterns show the president's party losing the national House popular vote by an average of around 8 points. Early generic ballot polls, though sparse, indicate Democrats holding a narrow edge of 1-3 points, driving volume toward modest Democratic margins like 6-8% (20%), while Republican wins remain lower probability due to incumbency disadvantages in battleground districts. Key upcoming catalysts include economic trends, approval ratings, and early primaries starting in 2026.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
音量
$1,493終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With the 2026 House midterms more than 23 months away, trader consensus favors "Other" at 45.5% amid high uncertainty over exact popular vote margins, reflecting the long timeline and unpredictable shifts in voter sentiment. Republicans currently hold a slim House majority following their 2024 victories, securing trifecta control with the presidency and Senate, yet historical midterm patterns show the president's party losing the national House popular vote by an average of around 8 points. Early generic ballot polls, though sparse, indicate Democrats holding a narrow edge of 1-3 points, driving volume toward modest Democratic margins like 6-8% (20%), while Republican wins remain lower probability due to incumbency disadvantages in battleground districts. Key upcoming catalysts include economic trends, approval ratings, and early primaries starting in 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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