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2026年9月29日

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過去24時間に最も動いたポリマーケットを見る

1
icon for トランプは9月30日までにAIの名称を変更するか?

トランプは9月30日までにAIの名称を変更するか?

98%
72%
2
icon for Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in September?

Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in September?

91%
58%
3
icon for 2026年10月23日までに次のAstraモデル(6.1以上)がリリースされますか?

2026年10月23日までに次のAstraモデル(6.1以上)がリリースされますか?

16%
52%
4
icon for OpenAIは2026年9月30日までに米国でのChatGPT Proの新規登録を再開しますか?

OpenAIは2026年9月30日までに米国でのChatGPT Proの新規登録を再開しますか?

79%
47%
5
icon for 2026年9月30日にOrnn A100インデックスは$0.75から$1.00の間になりますか?

2026年9月30日にOrnn A100インデックスは$0.75から$1.00の間になりますか?

95%
21%
6
icon for MetaのWatermelonは2026年10月31日までにリリースされますか?

MetaのWatermelonは2026年10月31日までにリリースされますか?

85%
18%
7
icon for ホッジ予想はAIによって次に解決されるミレニアム懸賞問題になるでしょうか?

ホッジ予想はAIによって次に解決されるミレニアム懸賞問題になるでしょうか?

29%
17%
8
icon for 2026年10月末にアリババは中国で最高のAIモデルを持っているでしょうか?

2026年10月末にアリババは中国で最高のAIモデルを持っているでしょうか?

26%
17%
9
icon for イーロン・マスクの純資産は9,000億ドルから1兆ドルの間になりますか(9月30日時点)?

イーロン・マスクの純資産は9,000億ドルから1兆ドルの間になりますか(9月30日時点)?

74%
15%
10
icon for Z.aiは2026年9月末に3番目に優れた数学AI研究所になりますか?

Z.aiは2026年9月末に3番目に優れた数学AI研究所になりますか?

95%
13%
11
icon for 次にArenaリーダーボードに追加されるGoogle Gemini Proモデルは、少なくとも1500のスコアでデビューしますか?

次にArenaリーダーボードに追加されるGoogle Gemini Proモデルは、少なくとも1500のスコアでデビューしますか?

68%
12%
12
icon for Googleは10月31日までにAnthropicの評価者コミットメントと同等のものを発表するか?

Googleは10月31日までにAnthropicの評価者コミットメントと同等のものを発表するか?

25%
11%
13
icon for 2026年9月30日にOrnn RTX 5090 Indexは少なくとも$0.60になりますか?

2026年9月30日にOrnn RTX 5090 Indexは少なくとも$0.60になりますか?

87%
11%
14
icon for 次のGoogle Gemini Proモデルは2026年10月9日までにリリースされますか?

次のGoogle Gemini Proモデルは2026年10月9日までにリリースされますか?

17%
9%
15
icon for 2026年10月31日までに次のFableモデル(5.2以上)がリリースされますか?

2026年10月31日までに次のFableモデル(5.2以上)がリリースされますか?

75%
8%
16
icon for 次のSonnetモデルは2026年12月31日までに少なくとも1490のスコアでデビューしますか?

次のSonnetモデルは2026年12月31日までに少なくとも1490のスコアでデビューしますか?

52%
8%
17
icon for GPT Sol 6.1+は2027年6月30日までに出力トークン価格が少なくとも40ドルでデビューしますか?

GPT Sol 6.1+は2027年6月30日までに出力トークン価格が少なくとも40ドルでデビューしますか?

0%
8%
18
icon for Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?

Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?

11%
7%
19
icon for 2026年のHumanity’s Last ExamでSpaceXAI Grokモデルによって達成される最高スコアは45%以上になるでしょうか?

2026年のHumanity’s Last ExamでSpaceXAI Grokモデルによって達成される最高スコアは45%以上になるでしょうか?

71%
4%
20
icon for 2026年の「人類最後の試験」で達成される最高得点は60%以上になりますか?

2026年の「人類最後の試験」で達成される最高得点は60%以上になりますか?

50%
1%

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ニュース速報

Sep 29, 8:00 PM

Trump vows to “nab them” if superintelligent AI models are used for harmful purposes.

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Sep 29, 7:57 PM

American Idol contestant Caleb Flynn found guilty of murdering his wife & staging the crime scene to resemble a home invasion.

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Sep 29, 7:52 PM

Trump considers forming “AI committee” for companies to self-regulate amid catastrophic risks.

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Sep 29, 7:48 PM

Trump calls Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang a “very handsome guy.”

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Sep 29, 7:44 PM

Trump officially signs executive order renaming artificial intelligence to “Super Intelligence,” urging all companies & governments to comply.

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Sep 29, 7:40 PM

Former Ohio COVID-19 health director Amy Acton surges in the state's gubernatorial election odds, edging Vivek Ramaswamy. 61% chance she wins.

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Sep 29, 7:30 PM

Legal immigration from majority-Muslim countries to the U.S. has plunged 96% under the Trump administration. — Cato Institute

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Sep 29, 7:22 PM

California Gov. Gavin Newsom signs a law banning the sale of disposable nicotine vapes starting in 2028 — cannabis vapes are exempt.

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Sep 29, 7:12 PM

Florida mother arrested after allegedly leaving her 4 young children, including an infant, home alone while she went on a Carnival cruise to the Bahamas.

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Sep 29, 7:04 PM

ChatGPT is currently experiencing elevated errors for many users.

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Sep 29, 6:55 PM

Palantir CEO Alex Karp has reportedly acquired a massive swath of Swedish forest spanning 15,000 hectares.

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Sep 29, 6:45 PM

Rockstar confirms powerful hurricanes & tropical storms will occur in GTA VI.

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Sep 29, 6:34 PM

Indonesia suspends 5 prison officials after investigators discover luxury apartment-style accommodations used by inmates, complete with big-screen TVs, alcohol-stocked refrigerators, air conditioning, & a golf simulator.

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Sep 29, 6:23 PM

Boston offers immigrants $575 to complete a 10-week “civic leadership program” that teaches political advocacy for progressive causes.

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Sep 29, 6:13 PM

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham to consider rejoining the European Union after the next general election.

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Sep 29, 6:06 PM

Gavin Newsom stages a comeback in the 2028 Democratic nomination odds, surging from record lows to within just 2 points of AOC's lead. 17% chance.

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Sep 29, 5:53 PM

Quebec separatist leader pledges to pursue an independence vote if his party takes power, but says he will "wait until Trump leaves office" before holding a referendum.

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Sep 29, 5:47 PM

Trump administration announces sanctions against 46 individuals & entities linked to Mexico's Sinaloa cartel.

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Sep 29, 5:33 PM

OpenAI launches GPT-6.1 Sol, claiming it nearly matches Astra's intelligence for coding, computer use, & professional work at 20% the token price.

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Sep 29, 5:20 PM

OpenAI unveils “Dots, always-on AI agents that can work autonomously 24/7, operate their own cloud computers, & connect to over 4,000 apps.

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Sep 29, 5:11 PM

Trump now projected to sign an official proclamation renaming artificial intelligence “Super Intelligence” by tomorrow. 72% chance.

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Sep 29, 5:06 PM

Disney announces another round of layoffs, cutting hundreds of jobs just months after eliminating thousands of positions over the spring & summer.

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Sep 29, 4:59 PM

Argentina's President Javier Milei declares “We are not going to regulate AI,” unveiling plans to attract AI companies with tax incentives & limited liability protections.

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Sep 29, 4:51 PM

America's oldest living person, Naomi Whitehead, celebrates her 116th birthday alongside her great-great-great-grandchildren.

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Sep 29, 4:45 PM

McDonald’s begins using AI to calculate how much customers are willing to pay for Big Macs & other menu items at individual restaurants.

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Sep 29, 4:40 PM

Nearly 40 kilograms of cocaine worth an estimated $31 million have “mysteriously vanished” from a Fiji courthouse, with local media reporting the drugs were replaced with flour.

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Sep 29, 4:32 PM

Lindsay Clancy’s lawyer is now arguing there is “insufficient evidence” she killed her 3 children.

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Sep 29, 4:25 PM

Alaska woman turns herself in to police after Google’s AI Overview led her to accidentally hunt 3 birds out of season.

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Sep 29, 4:20 PM

SEC allows Tesla to proceed with its proposed retail shareholder voting program.

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Sep 29, 4:12 PM

Russia has reportedly recruited at least 18 Americans to fight in Ukraine, offering $26,000 signing bonuses before deploying them to dangerous frontline positions.

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Sep 29, 4:05 PM

Bitget customers withdraw a net $463 million as the exchange reopens withdrawals following last week's massive hack.

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Sep 29, 3:58 PM

NYC Mayor Mamdani launches the city's first-ever municipal “strategy to combat antisemitism,” declaring that Jewish New Yorkers deserve to be safe & celebrated.

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Sep 29, 3:52 PM

Trump assures Americans his “little excursion to the Islamic Republic of Iran” will be over very soon.

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Sep 29, 3:44 PM

OpenAI says "sorry" to Australia after its AI agents autonomously hacked government websites.

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Sep 29, 3:36 PM

Long-term unemployment in the U.S. is surging at a rate "unprecedented outside recessions," with the average job search now taking more than 6 months. — Bloomberg

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Sep 29, 3:29 PM

Smart ring maker Oura postpones its planned $2.2 billion IPO, citing "market uncertainty."

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Sep 29, 3:17 PM

Trump's ban on select Canadian products officially takes effect, with U.S. customs ordered to reject imports including wine, liquor, whey protein, & motorcycles.

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Sep 29, 3:08 PM

U.S. forces are set to leave their final bases in Iraq by Wednesday, ending more than two decades of military presence in the country.

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Sep 29, 3:01 PM

U.S. consumer confidence plunges to its lowest level since 2014.

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Sep 29, 2:55 PM

Trump officially unveils America.⁠gov, a new AI-powered website designed to help Americans navigate government services.

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Sep 29, 2:48 PM

Karoline Leavitt accuses Democrats of doing “360s” on their policy positions.

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Sep 29, 2:36 PM

Senate passes the Protect College Sports Act in a bipartisan 77–22 vote, advancing legislation to restore NCAA eligibility, transfer limits, & regulate NIL deals.

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Sep 29, 2:24 PM

U.S. job openings fall to 7.1 million in August, their lowest level since March & below all economists' estimates.

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Sep 29, 2:10 PM

Iran’s currency crashes to a record low, with 1 Iranian rial now worth just $0.0000004.

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Sep 29, 2:06 PM

Singapore charges man for allegedly creating an AI-generated image of a crocodile that sparked public alarm & forced authorities to suspend activities at a major reservoir for 2 days.

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Sep 29, 2:02 PM

Estonia accuses Russia of ordering an arson attack on a defense company supplying Ukraine with unmanned military vehicles, with 3 suspects arrested.

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Sep 29, 1:53 PM

FBI announces the arrest of an alleged leader of the infamous global cybercrime group ShinyHunters.

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Sep 29, 1:47 PM

Trump’s approval rating crashes to 37% in a new WSJ poll, the lowest for any president heading into the midterms since 1990.

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Sep 29, 1:39 PM

Nike is cutting off most third-party online retailers in China to end heavy discounting & restore its “premium brand image.”

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Sep 29, 1:30 PM

VP JD Vance declares all immigrants who entered the U.S. illegally are “subject to deportation.”

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Sep 29, 1:23 PM

Multiple Florida counties declare states of emergency over a deadly mosquito-borne dengue outbreak.

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Sep 29, 1:17 PM

OpenAI announces its $200 Pro subscription will reopen tomorrow with roughly half the previous API-equivalent usage.

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Sep 29, 1:09 PM

Lindsay Clancy returns to court today as prosecutors weigh a retrial, while her lawyers argue a second trial would violate her constitutional rights.

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Sep 29, 1:00 PM

Türkiye seizes an Iranian passenger plane at Istanbul Airport minutes before takeoff over an unpaid €3 million debt, forcing passengers to disembark.

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Sep 29, 12:38 PM

DHS watchdog finds errors in 40% of sampled Afghan asylum files from Biden’s 2021 evacuation program, including missing aliases & security checks.

新しいポリマーケット

Sep 29, 12:28 PM

Trump insults Anthropic CEO this week?

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Sep 29, 11:03 AM

UK government is lobbying the Trump administration against a potential U.S. diesel export ban, warning Britain relies on America for roughly a third of its diesel imports.

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Sep 29, 10:32 AM

JPMorgan boss reportedly told ex-employee to separate his "gay job" from his "day job" before firing him — lawsuit

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Sep 29, 10:09 AM

AstraZeneca invests $2,000,000,000.00 in Summit Therapeutics as the companies expand their partnership to develop cancer drugs.

新しいポリマーケット

Sep 29, 9:23 AM

CNN denied entry from White House again by...?

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Sep 29, 8:06 AM

UK reportedly considers imposing a temporary 50 mph speed limit nationwide to reduce fuel consumption during a severe shortage.

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Sep 29, 7:51 AM

U.S. drugmakers increasingly turn to China for experimental medicines, with Pfizer, Merck, Eli Lilly, AbbVie and Bristol Myers Squibb among those striking multibillion-dollar deals.

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Sep 29, 7:42 AM

Giorgia Meloni’s government imposes a 30% cap on foreign pupils in Italian classrooms, saying the measure will “avoid ghetto classes and give all students the same opportunities.”

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Sep 29, 6:43 AM

Turkish comedian Deniz Göktaş is set to be released after nearly 90 days in prison following his conviction for insulting President Erdoğan in a stand-up routine.

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Sep 29, 5:23 AM

Turkish President Erdoğan holds a rare 50-minute meeting with Hendrik Wüst, the German regional leader emerging as a potential successor to Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

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Sep 29, 5:05 AM

Plans for an AI data center in suburban Sydney, Australia are scrapped following backlash from local residents.

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Sep 29, 4:16 AM

UAE confirms Netanyahu made a rare visit to the country for talks with President Mohamed bin Zayed, with their 6-hour meeting reportedly focused on Iran.

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Sep 29, 3:33 AM

Massive storm system projected to leave multiple states wet this week.

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Sep 29, 3:28 AM

North Korea warns U.S. approval for South Korea to build its first nuclear-powered submarine is a “dangerous development”

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Sep 29, 2:55 AM

Mark Cuban predicts humanoid robots will fail within 5–10 years, saying homes will instead be redesigned around specialized robots built for specific tasks.

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Sep 29, 2:08 AM

The D.C. pro-data center cocktail party has been revealed to have drawn a reportedly “mostly male” crowd of several hundred AI enthusiasts.

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Sep 29, 1:50 AM

Avengers: Endgame is on the verge of reclaiming the title of highest-grossing movie ever from Avatar after its “Encore” re-release featuring 3 minutes of additional footage.

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Sep 29, 1:34 AM

Toddler pulls out a loaded handgun at a Michigan daycare, prompting police to take the child’s parent, an officer from a neighboring department, into custody.