White House confirmation of President Trump's summit with Xi Jinping on May 14-15 in Beijing, rescheduled from late March amid the ongoing Iran war and Strait of Hormuz blockade, drives trader consensus toward a mid-May visit, with implied probabilities totaling around 76% by May 31. Yet "No visit by May 31" leads slightly at 24% due to persistent geopolitical risks, including stalled Iran negotiations that Trump has tied to the trip's timing and unresolved tensions over trade, Taiwan, and energy disruptions. The tight race among top outcomes—May 13 (19.5%), May 14 (15%), May 15 (10%)—reflects uncertainty on the exact date amid diplomatic fluidity. A breakthrough Iran deal or detailed itinerary could consolidate odds on mid-May; escalation might elevate "No."
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWill Trump visit China on...?
Will Trump visit China on...?
No visit by May 31 25%
May 13 20%
May 15 11%
May 14 9%
On or prior to May 1
1%
May 2
1%
May 3
1%
May 4
1%
May 5
1%
May 6
2%
May 7
1%
May 8
2%
May 9
3%
May 10
3%
May 11
3%
May 12
3%
May 13
20%
May 14
19%
May 15
11%
May 16
5%
May 17
3%
May 18
3%
May 19
3%
May 20
3%
May 21
3%
May 22
3%
May 23
3%
May 24
3%
May 25
3%
May 26
3%
May 27
3%
May 28
3%
May 29
3%
May 30
3%
May 31
3%
No visit by May 31
25%
No visit by May 31 25%
May 13 20%
May 15 11%
May 14 9%
On or prior to May 1
1%
May 2
1%
May 3
1%
May 4
1%
May 5
1%
May 6
2%
May 7
1%
May 8
2%
May 9
3%
May 10
3%
May 11
3%
May 12
3%
May 13
20%
May 14
19%
May 15
11%
May 16
5%
May 17
3%
May 18
3%
May 19
3%
May 20
3%
May 21
3%
May 22
3%
May 23
3%
May 24
3%
May 25
3%
May 26
3%
May 27
3%
May 28
3%
May 29
3%
May 30
3%
May 31
3%
No visit by May 31
25%
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 27, 2026, 3:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...White House confirmation of President Trump's summit with Xi Jinping on May 14-15 in Beijing, rescheduled from late March amid the ongoing Iran war and Strait of Hormuz blockade, drives trader consensus toward a mid-May visit, with implied probabilities totaling around 76% by May 31. Yet "No visit by May 31" leads slightly at 24% due to persistent geopolitical risks, including stalled Iran negotiations that Trump has tied to the trip's timing and unresolved tensions over trade, Taiwan, and energy disruptions. The tight race among top outcomes—May 13 (19.5%), May 14 (15%), May 15 (10%)—reflects uncertainty on the exact date amid diplomatic fluidity. A breakthrough Iran deal or detailed itinerary could consolidate odds on mid-May; escalation might elevate "No."
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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