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US strikes Iran by...?

Market icon

US strikes Iran by...?

$529,033,417 Vol.

17 gen 2026
Polymarket

$529,033,417 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31

$19,193 Vol.

No

January 11

$3,035,454 Vol.

No

January 12

$1,743,135 Vol.

No

January 13

$3,335,543 Vol.

No

January 14

$13,619,742 Vol.

No

January 15

$7,975,002 Vol.

No

January 16

$8,491,723 Vol.

No

January 17

$3,823,998 Vol.

No

January 18

$5,468,913 Vol.

No

January 23

$12,296,618 Vol.

No

January 24

$2,924,662 Vol.

No

January 25

$2,703,692 Vol.

No

January 26

$6,908,538 Vol.

No

January 27

$2,498,074 Vol.

No

January 28

$1,950,685 Vol.

No

January 29

$3,064,539 Vol.

No

January 30

$3,469,659 Vol.

No

January 31

$41,754,060 Vol.

No

February 1

$6,629,658 Vol.

No

February 2

$4,246,232 Vol.

No

February 3

$3,763,165 Vol.

No

February 4

$3,844,340 Vol.

No

February 5

$4,461,531 Vol.

No

February 6

$9,750,256 Vol.

No

February 7

$3,615,405 Vol.

No

February 8

$3,821,142 Vol.

No

February 9

$17,561,112 Vol.

No

February 10

$10,496,937 Vol.

No

February 11

$4,493,524 Vol.

No

February 12

$4,187,886 Vol.

No

February 13

$15,146,244 Vol.

No

February 14

$4,140,716 Vol.

No

February 15

$4,542,348 Vol.

No

February 16

$4,855,990 Vol.

No

February 17

$5,599,406 Vol.

No

February 18

$7,408,763 Vol.

No

February 19

$8,798,853 Vol.

No

February 20

$18,810,054 Vol.

No

February 21

$12,250,013 Vol.

No

February 22

$12,611,170 Vol.

No

February 23

$14,022,419 Vol.

No

February 24

$16,942,274 Vol.

No

February 25

$10,517,389 Vol.

No

February 26

$14,489,547 Vol.

No

February 27

$25,087,849 Vol.

No

February 28

$89,652,867 Vol.

Yes

March 1

$8,093,539 Vol.

Yes

March 2

$3,812,922 Vol.

Yes

March 3

$1,917,863 Vol.

Yes

March 4

$1,376,485 Vol.

Yes

March 5

$1,565,799 Vol.

Yes

March 6

$1,008,204 Vol.

Yes

March 7

$2,470,666 Vol.

Yes

March 8

$539,454 Vol.

Yes

March 9

$379,810 Vol.

Yes

March 10

$269,970 Vol.

Yes

March 11

$190,483 Vol.

Yes

March 12

$197,658 Vol.

Yes

March 13

$283,107 Vol.

Yes

March 14

$357,946 Vol.

Yes

March 15

$6,642,886 Vol.

Yes

March 31

$22,213,247 Vol.

Yes

June 30

$9,193,272 Vol.

Yes

December 31

$1,689,785 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$529,033,417
Data di fine
30 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
Jan 13, 2026, 11:06 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Esito proposto: No

Nessuna contestazione

Esito finale: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$529,033,417
Data di fine
30 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
Jan 13, 2026, 11:06 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Esito proposto: No

Nessuna contestazione

Esito finale: No

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"US strikes Iran by...?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 64+ possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "February 28" a 100%, seguito da "March 1" a 100%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 100¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "US strikes Iran by...?" ha generato $529 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Dec 22, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "US strikes Iran by...?", esplora i 64+ esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "US strikes Iran by...?" è "February 28" a 100%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "March 1" a 100%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "US strikes Iran by...?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.