Recent gasoline price surges tied to Middle East supply disruptions have emerged as the dominant driver of September 2026 CPI expectations, with forecasts centering on a 0.5–0.6% monthly headline increase after August’s 0.4% print. Energy commodities are projected to contribute the bulk of the gain, potentially lifting the year-over-year rate toward 3.6%, while core CPI is expected to moderate to around 0.2% as shelter and supercore components mean-revert. Trader positioning reflects tight competition between the 0.5% and 0.6% outcomes, with uncertainty hinging on the precise magnitude of gasoline’s seasonal-adjusted contribution and any offsets from softer used-vehicle or insurance prices. The October 14 release will also inform near-term Fed policy expectations amid still-elevated core readings above 2.4% year-over-year.