Trader consensus assigns an 87% implied probability to a Democratic victory in the Oregon gubernatorial election on November 3, 2026, driven by incumbent Gov. Tina Kotek's unchallenged path through the May 19 Democratic primary, where she holds overwhelming financial and name-recognition advantages over nine minor challengers. Recent polls from late April confirm Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan's substantial lead in a fragmented 14-candidate GOP primary, positioning her as the likely nominee in a potential rematch of her narrow 2022 loss to Kotek. Oregon's Democratic dominance in gubernatorial races since 1987, bolstered by the state's left-leaning electorate and lack of a strong third-party contender this cycle, underpins the lopsided odds, though primary results and emerging general matchup polling could shift sentiment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$15,318 Vol.
$15,318 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratico
87%
Repubblicano
12%
$15,318 Vol.
$15,318 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratico
$8,733 Vol.
87%
Repubblicano
$6,585 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus assigns an 87% implied probability to a Democratic victory in the Oregon gubernatorial election on November 3, 2026, driven by incumbent Gov. Tina Kotek's unchallenged path through the May 19 Democratic primary, where she holds overwhelming financial and name-recognition advantages over nine minor challengers. Recent polls from late April confirm Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan's substantial lead in a fragmented 14-candidate GOP primary, positioning her as the likely nominee in a potential rematch of her narrow 2022 loss to Kotek. Oregon's Democratic dominance in gubernatorial races since 1987, bolstered by the state's left-leaning electorate and lack of a strong third-party contender this cycle, underpins the lopsided odds, though primary results and emerging general matchup polling could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercato aperto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$15,318Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus assigns an 87% implied probability to a Democratic victory in the Oregon gubernatorial election on November 3, 2026, driven by incumbent Gov. Tina Kotek's unchallenged path through the May 19 Democratic primary, where she holds overwhelming financial and name-recognition advantages over nine minor challengers. Recent polls from late April confirm Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan's substantial lead in a fragmented 14-candidate GOP primary, positioning her as the likely nominee in a potential rematch of her narrow 2022 loss to Kotek. Oregon's Democratic dominance in gubernatorial races since 1987, bolstered by the state's left-leaning electorate and lack of a strong third-party contender this cycle, underpins the lopsided odds, though primary results and emerging general matchup polling could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$15,318Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns an 87% implied probability to a Democratic victory in the Oregon gubernatorial election on November 3, 2026, driven by incumbent Gov. Tina Kotek's unchallenged path through the May 19 Democratic primary, where she holds overwhelming financial and name-recognition advantages over nine minor challengers. Recent polls from late April confirm Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan's substantial lead in a fragmented 14-candidate GOP primary, positioning her as the likely nominee in a potential rematch of her narrow 2022 loss to Kotek. Oregon's Democratic dominance in gubernatorial races since 1987, bolstered by the state's left-leaning electorate and lack of a strong third-party contender this cycle, underpins the lopsided odds, though primary results and emerging general matchup polling could shift sentiment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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