Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 78.5% implied probability for OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI) achievement before 2027, driven by the absence of any official statement despite accelerating frontier model progress. Recent developments, including OpenAI's November 2025 outlook projecting small AI discoveries in 2026 and advanced systems by 2028, alongside Sam Altman's predictions of rapid internal acceleration, have shortened timelines in trader sentiment—but fall short of verified AGI milestones like broad human-level cognition across domains. Informal employee claims, such as those around o1 reasoning benchmarks, lack official endorsement, while varying AGI definitions (e.g., economic value thresholds) fuel skepticism. Key catalysts include upcoming model rollouts like "Spud" and Altman's recent forums, with historical delays tempering optimism.