Incumbent Republican Mike Carey holds a substantial edge in Ohio's 15th Congressional District, reflected in trader consensus around 74-75% implied probability. The district carries an R+5 partisan voting index and delivered Carey a 56.5% victory in 2024. He secured the Republican nomination without opposition in the May 2026 primary, while Democrat Don Leonard narrowly won his party's contest. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Likely or Solid Republican. Carey maintains a clear fundraising advantage and benefits from incumbency in a district encompassing growing Columbus suburbs. Polling shows him ahead by single digits, with a third-party candidate drawing modest support, though the seat remains within reach for Democrats if turnout or national conditions shift.