Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 Iran war and fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire. No verified reports of military plotting, elite defections, or widespread protests have emerged in the past 30 days, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidating de facto control amid tensions with reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian but without violent rupture. Recent Hormuz Strait incidents, including Iranian gunboat actions and U.S. blockade threats as of April 18, signal external escalation risks rather than internal overthrow signals. Absent a sudden Supreme Leader health crisis, assassination, or mass unrest—suppressed effectively in prior waves—traders see structural barriers like IRGC loyalty and surveillance state dominance sustaining stability through the deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$399,542 Vol.
$399,542 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$399,542 Vol.
$399,542 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 Iran war and fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire. No verified reports of military plotting, elite defections, or widespread protests have emerged in the past 30 days, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidating de facto control amid tensions with reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian but without violent rupture. Recent Hormuz Strait incidents, including Iranian gunboat actions and U.S. blockade threats as of April 18, signal external escalation risks rather than internal overthrow signals. Absent a sudden Supreme Leader health crisis, assassination, or mass unrest—suppressed effectively in prior waves—traders see structural barriers like IRGC loyalty and surveillance state dominance sustaining stability through the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$399,542Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 Iran war and fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire. No verified reports of military plotting, elite defections, or widespread protests have emerged in the past 30 days, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidating de facto control amid tensions with reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian but without violent rupture. Recent Hormuz Strait incidents, including Iranian gunboat actions and U.S. blockade threats as of April 18, signal external escalation risks rather than internal overthrow signals. Absent a sudden Supreme Leader health crisis, assassination, or mass unrest—suppressed effectively in prior waves—traders see structural barriers like IRGC loyalty and surveillance state dominance sustaining stability through the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$399,542Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 Iran war and fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire. No verified reports of military plotting, elite defections, or widespread protests have emerged in the past 30 days, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidating de facto control amid tensions with reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian but without violent rupture. Recent Hormuz Strait incidents, including Iranian gunboat actions and U.S. blockade threats as of April 18, signal external escalation risks rather than internal overthrow signals. Absent a sudden Supreme Leader health crisis, assassination, or mass unrest—suppressed effectively in prior waves—traders see structural barriers like IRGC loyalty and surveillance state dominance sustaining stability through the deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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