Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82% implied probability for a Democratic blue wave in the 2026 midterms, driven by strong generic ballot polling leads of 4-7 points for Democrats in averages from Nate Silver and Race to the WH, alongside unexpected wins in recent off-year races including a Georgia conservative congressional district special election, Wisconsin mayoral contest, and Southern state legislative flips within the past two weeks. These developments signal building momentum against Republican majorities—53-47 Senate and narrow House control post-2024—amid historical midterm penalties averaging 26 House seat losses for the president's party. Upcoming primaries in battlegrounds like Michigan and Georgia could further shape paths to Democratic House flip and Senate competitiveness, though maps pose challenges for supermajorities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$35,929 Vol.
$35,929 Vol.
30 nov 2026
Sì
$35,929 Vol.
$35,929 Vol.
30 nov 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82% implied probability for a Democratic blue wave in the 2026 midterms, driven by strong generic ballot polling leads of 4-7 points for Democrats in averages from Nate Silver and Race to the WH, alongside unexpected wins in recent off-year races including a Georgia conservative congressional district special election, Wisconsin mayoral contest, and Southern state legislative flips within the past two weeks. These developments signal building momentum against Republican majorities—53-47 Senate and narrow House control post-2024—amid historical midterm penalties averaging 26 House seat losses for the president's party. Upcoming primaries in battlegrounds like Michigan and Georgia could further shape paths to Democratic House flip and Senate competitiveness, though maps pose challenges for supermajorities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Mercato aperto: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volume
$35,929Data di fine
30 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82% implied probability for a Democratic blue wave in the 2026 midterms, driven by strong generic ballot polling leads of 4-7 points for Democrats in averages from Nate Silver and Race to the WH, alongside unexpected wins in recent off-year races including a Georgia conservative congressional district special election, Wisconsin mayoral contest, and Southern state legislative flips within the past two weeks. These developments signal building momentum against Republican majorities—53-47 Senate and narrow House control post-2024—amid historical midterm penalties averaging 26 House seat losses for the president's party. Upcoming primaries in battlegrounds like Michigan and Georgia could further shape paths to Democratic House flip and Senate competitiveness, though maps pose challenges for supermajorities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Volume
$35,929Data di fine
30 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82% implied probability for a Democratic blue wave in the 2026 midterms, driven by strong generic ballot polling leads of 4-7 points for Democrats in averages from Nate Silver and Race to the WH, alongside unexpected wins in recent off-year races including a Georgia conservative congressional district special election, Wisconsin mayoral contest, and Southern state legislative flips within the past two weeks. These developments signal building momentum against Republican majorities—53-47 Senate and narrow House control post-2024—amid historical midterm penalties averaging 26 House seat losses for the president's party. Upcoming primaries in battlegrounds like Michigan and Georgia could further shape paths to Democratic House flip and Senate competitiveness, though maps pose challenges for supermajorities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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