Recent polling shows higher Democratic voter enthusiasm than Republican enthusiasm ahead of the November 3, 2026, House elections, driven by opposition to the Trump administration’s policies on prices and foreign affairs. This dynamic, alongside expanded mail voting and demographic shifts, supports trader expectations for turnout near or above the 107.7 million votes recorded in 2022. Historical midterm patterns, lower participation rates among younger and minority voters who lean Democratic, and a limited number of competitive districts after redistricting temper projections of a sharp surge. The spread across 110–125 million vote bins reflects uncertainty over whether base mobilization and opposition energy will overcome these structural factors in the final weeks.