Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton did not withdraw from the Republican primary runoff for U.S. Senate against incumbent John Cornyn by the March 17 deadline, despite early March statements conditioning an exit on passage of the SAVE Act voter ID bill, which has not advanced. Recent polls, including one showing Paxton up 8 points, reflect his competitive standing ahead of the May 26 runoff, reinforcing trader consensus at 90% against a drop-out. Paxton remains active in his AG role, recently withdrawing from a school voucher lawsuit and calling for the acting comptroller's removal over policy disputes. While a Trump endorsement shift, late scandal, or legal developments in his long-running securities fraud case could alter odds, no such catalysts have emerged in the past month.