South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham Nordone 78.0%
Ralph Norman 23%
Mark Sanford <1%
Russell Fry <1%
$1,588,403 Vol.
$1,588,403 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Darline Graham Nordone
$820,770 Vol.
78%
Ralph Norman
$253,378 Vol.
23%
Mark Sanford
$226,865 Vol.
<1%
Russell Fry
$211,573 Vol.
<1%
Nancy Mace
$8,462 Vol.
<1%
Joe Wilson
$2,953 Vol.
<1%
Mark Lynch
$26,808 Vol.
<1%
Paul Dans
$1,237 Vol.
<1%
William Timmons
$976 Vol.
<1%
Sheri Biggs
$1,205 Vol.
<1%
Pamela Evette
$21,356 Vol.
<1%
André Bauer
$1,244 Vol.
<1%
Alan Wilson
$564 Vol.
<1%
Scott Bessent
$2,649 Vol.
<1%
Trey Gowdy
$8,363 Vol.
<1%
Darline Graham Nordone 78.0%
Ralph Norman 23%
Mark Sanford <1%
Russell Fry <1%
$1,588,403 Vol.
$1,588,403 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Darline Graham Nordone
$820,770 Vol.
78%
Ralph Norman
$253,378 Vol.
23%
Mark Sanford
$226,865 Vol.
<1%
Russell Fry
$211,573 Vol.
<1%
Nancy Mace
$8,462 Vol.
<1%
Joe Wilson
$2,953 Vol.
<1%
Mark Lynch
$26,808 Vol.
<1%
Paul Dans
$1,237 Vol.
<1%
William Timmons
$976 Vol.
<1%
Sheri Biggs
$1,205 Vol.
<1%
Pamela Evette
$21,356 Vol.
<1%
André Bauer
$1,244 Vol.
<1%
Alan Wilson
$564 Vol.
<1%
Scott Bessent
$2,649 Vol.
<1%
Trey Gowdy
$8,363 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff.
If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election.
If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.**Darline Graham Nordone holds a commanding position in the South Carolina Republican special Senate primary market at 78% because she led the August 11 first-round vote with roughly 33% and secured President Trump’s endorsement, giving her strong name recognition as the appointed incumbent and sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham.** Ralph Norman advanced in second place at about 25% and sits at 22.5% in the market, while Russell Fry (roughly 20%) and a long list of other Republicans trail far behind at 0.1–0.3%.
The August 25 runoff now determines the nominee, and traders view Graham’s advantages in fundraising, party infrastructure support, and Trump backing as difficult for Norman to overcome in the short window. No other candidates cleared the threshold to reach the runoff, leaving the contest binary between the top two finishers. The outcome remains subject to turnout shifts or late developments before the runoff date.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff.
If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election.
If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff.
If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election.
If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
**Darline Graham Nordone holds a commanding position in the South Carolina Republican special Senate primary market at 78% because she led the August 11 first-round vote with roughly 33% and secured President Trump’s endorsement, giving her strong name recognition as the appointed incumbent and sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham.** Ralph Norman advanced in second place at about 25% and sits at 22.5% in the market, while Russell Fry (roughly 20%) and a long list of other Republicans trail far behind at 0.1–0.3%.
The August 25 runoff now determines the nominee, and traders view Graham’s advantages in fundraising, party infrastructure support, and Trump backing as difficult for Norman to overcome in the short window. No other candidates cleared the threshold to reach the runoff, leaving the contest binary between the top two finishers. The outcome remains subject to turnout shifts or late developments before the runoff date.
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Aug 11 2026
South Carolina holds special Republican primary for U.S. Senate seat
South Carolina conducted the special Republican primary election to choose the nominee to replace the late Lindsey Graham, with Darline Graham Nordone, Ralph Norman, Mark Sanford, Russell Fry, and Mark Lynch among the contenders. The results will determine the Republican candidate for the November general election.
Aug 11 2026
Special Republican primary held to select nominee for Lindsey Graham's seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 77%31%
South Carolina held a special Republican primary on August 11, 2026, to select the party's nominee for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Lindsey Graham's death. The primary featured a crowded field including Darline Graham Nordone, Ralph Norman, Russell Fry, Mark Sanford, and Mark Lynch. Darline Graham Nordone led the race, benefiting from her appointment and Trump's endorsement, with other candidates trailing.
Aug 11 2026
Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman advance to runoff in South Carolina Senate special primary
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 77%31%
In the August 11 special Republican primary, Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman secured the top two spots, advancing to a runoff election. This outcome reflected the market's shift with Nordone's strong position and Norman's resilience despite Trump's endorsement of Nordone.
Aug 11 2026
Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advance to runoff in South Carolina Senate special primary
In the August 11 special Republican primary, Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman secured the top two spots, advancing to a runoff election scheduled for August 25. This outcome reflected the competitive nature of the race and the divided support among Republican voters.
Aug 5 2026
Early voting begins for South Carolina special Republican Senate primary
Early voting started for the special Republican primary election to select the nominee to replace Lindsey Graham, intensifying campaign efforts and voter engagement ahead of the August 11 primary date.
Jul 28 2026
Candidate filing period closes for South Carolina special Senate primary
The one-week candidate filing period for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham closed, finalizing the crowded field of candidates including Darline Graham Nordone, Ralph Norman, Mark Sanford, Russell Fry, and Mark Lynch.
Jul 24 2026
Darline Graham Nordone files to run in special primary
Darline Graham Nordone rises to 72%2%
Interim Senator Darline Graham Nordone formally submitted her paperwork to run in the special Republican primary to retain the Senate seat vacated by her late brother. This filing confirmed her intention to seek a full term in the Senate.
Jul 23 2026
Mark Sanford announces run for South Carolina Senate special election
Former South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat. Sanford emphasized fiscal responsibility and the national debt as key issues in his campaign.
Jul 23 2026
Mark Sanford enters South Carolina Senate special election race
Mark Sanford plunges to 0%50%
Former South Carolina Governor and U.S. Representative Mark Sanford announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat. Sanford emphasized fiscal responsibility and the national debt as key campaign issues.
Jul 23 2026
Mark Sanford announces candidacy for South Carolina Senate special election
Mark Sanford plunges to 2%48%
Former South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford announced his run for the Senate seat, focusing on fiscal responsibility and national debt concerns. His entry added to the crowded field but his market probability remained low, reflecting limited impact on frontrunners.
Jul 21 2026
Nancy Mace endorses Ralph Norman, declines Senate run
Ralph Norman plunges to 31%15%
Congresswoman Nancy Mace announced she would not run for the Senate seat, citing unfinished business, and instead endorsed Ralph Norman in the special Republican primary. This endorsement was significant as Mace was a notable figure in South Carolina politics and had previously considered running.
Jul 20 2026
Russell Fry announces candidacy for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Russell Fry plunges to 16%29%
Rep. Russell Fry officially announced his campaign for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Lindsey Graham's death. Fry is a Trump ally and positioned himself as a conservative MAGA candidate, adding to the competitive Republican field.
Jul 20 2026
Darline Graham Nordone announces candidacy for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone rises to 72%4%
Darline Graham Nordone announced she would run for a full six-year Senate term in the special Republican primary, seeking to continue her late brother's legacy. This announcement solidified her position as a major candidate in the race.
Jul 20 2026
Russell Fry enters South Carolina Senate race
Russell Fry drops to 38%7%
U.S. Representative Russell Fry announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham. Fry positioned himself as a conservative MAGA candidate and received President Trump's reported encouragement to run.
Jul 20 2026
Donald Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 81%18%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone to run for a full term in the U.S. Senate, urging her to run for the seat and lending significant weight to her candidacy in the special primary.
Jul 20 2026
Rep. Russell Fry announces candidacy for South Carolina Senate seat
Russell Fry jumps to 11%7%
Congressman Russell Fry announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham. Initially, Fry had Trump's support to run, which increased his market probability, but Trump's later endorsement of Nordone complicated Fry's position.
Jul 20 2026
Darline Graham Nordone announces run for full Senate term with Trump's endorsement
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 80%11%
Darline Graham Nordone announced her candidacy for a full term in the U.S. Senate, receiving President Donald Trump's complete and total endorsement. This endorsement significantly boosted her profile and market position in the special Republican primary.
Jul 18 2026
Ralph Norman announces Senate bid despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman plunges to 18%27%
Congressman Ralph Norman declared his candidacy for the Senate seat, running against Trump-endorsed Darline Graham Nordone. He positioned himself as a conservative fighter with endorsements from Senators Mike Lee and Rick Scott, challenging the establishment choice.
Jul 18 2026
Ralph Norman announces run for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman plunges to 24%21%
Congressman Ralph Norman entered the special primary race despite President Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham, gaining endorsements from Senators Mike Lee and Rick Scott, which affected his market position.
Jul 18 2026
Rep. Ralph Norman announces run for South Carolina Senate seat despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman plunges to 16%29%
Ralph Norman declared his candidacy for the Senate seat despite President Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham Nordone. Norman received endorsements from GOP Senators Mike Lee and Rick Scott, positioning him as a significant challenger and affecting market dynamics.
Jul 18 2026
Ralph Norman announces Senate run despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman drops to 31%14%
Congressman Ralph Norman announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, despite President Donald Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham Nordone. Norman received endorsements from Senators Rick Scott and Mike Lee, positioning him as a strong conservative contender.
Jul 14 2026
Mark Lynch renews Senate campaign following Lindsey Graham's death
Mark Lynch plunges to 1%44%
Businessman Mark Lynch, who challenged Lindsey Graham in the June primary, renewed his campaign for the special Republican primary after Graham's death. Despite his efforts, his market probability remained low, indicating limited traction.
Jul 14 2026
Darline Graham Nordone sworn in as U.S. Senator
Darline Graham Nordone rises to 70%2%
Darline Graham Nordone was sworn in on July 14, 2026, officially becoming the junior U.S. Senator from South Carolina. Her swearing-in followed her appointment and was a significant step in her campaign to retain the seat in the special primary.
Jul 14 2026
President Donald Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 69%51%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone to run for a full term in the special Republican primary, boosting her profile and market position significantly. Trump's endorsement is influential in South Carolina GOP politics and shifted support towards Nordone.
Jul 13 2026
Governor McMaster appoints Darline Graham Nordone to fill late Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 69%63%
South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham Nordone, sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham, to serve the remainder of his term, making her the first woman to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate. This appointment gave her immediate incumbency advantage and recognition in the special primary race.
Jul 13 2026
South Carolina Governor appoints Darline Graham Nordone to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 63%57%
Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham Nordone, Lindsey Graham's sister, as interim U.S. Senator to serve the remainder of her brother's term, marking the first woman to represent South Carolina in the Senate. This appointment immediately positioned her as a key candidate in the upcoming special primary.
Jul 13 2026
Darline Graham Nordone appointed to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 68%62%
South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham Nordone, sister of the late Lindsey Graham, to serve the remainder of his Senate term. This appointment made her the first woman to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate and positioned her as a key candidate in the upcoming special primary.
Jul 12 2026
Nancy Mace considers Senate bid but ultimately declines
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace initially considered running for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat following his death and began polling her viability. However, she later announced she would not run, citing unfinished business and endorsing Ralph Norman instead, impacting the race dynamics.
Jul 12 2026
Rep. Nancy Mace considers but ultimately declines to run for Senate seat
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace initially considered running for the Senate seat but announced she would not run, citing unfinished business and focusing on justice issues. She later endorsed Ralph Norman, influencing his support base and market position.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff.
If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election.
If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.**Darline Graham Nordone holds a commanding position in the South Carolina Republican special Senate primary market at 78% because she led the August 11 first-round vote with roughly 33% and secured President Trump’s endorsement, giving her strong name recognition as the appointed incumbent and sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham.** Ralph Norman advanced in second place at about 25% and sits at 22.5% in the market, while Russell Fry (roughly 20%) and a long list of other Republicans trail far behind at 0.1–0.3%.
The August 25 runoff now determines the nominee, and traders view Graham’s advantages in fundraising, party infrastructure support, and Trump backing as difficult for Norman to overcome in the short window. No other candidates cleared the threshold to reach the runoff, leaving the contest binary between the top two finishers. The outcome remains subject to turnout shifts or late developments before the runoff date.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff.
If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election.
If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff.
If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election.
If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
**Darline Graham Nordone holds a commanding position in the South Carolina Republican special Senate primary market at 78% because she led the August 11 first-round vote with roughly 33% and secured President Trump’s endorsement, giving her strong name recognition as the appointed incumbent and sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham.** Ralph Norman advanced in second place at about 25% and sits at 22.5% in the market, while Russell Fry (roughly 20%) and a long list of other Republicans trail far behind at 0.1–0.3%.
The August 25 runoff now determines the nominee, and traders view Graham’s advantages in fundraising, party infrastructure support, and Trump backing as difficult for Norman to overcome in the short window. No other candidates cleared the threshold to reach the runoff, leaving the contest binary between the top two finishers. The outcome remains subject to turnout shifts or late developments before the runoff date.
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Aug 11 2026
South Carolina holds special Republican primary for U.S. Senate seat
South Carolina conducted the special Republican primary election to choose the nominee to replace the late Lindsey Graham, with Darline Graham Nordone, Ralph Norman, Mark Sanford, Russell Fry, and Mark Lynch among the contenders. The results will determine the Republican candidate for the November general election.
Aug 11 2026
Special Republican primary held to select nominee for Lindsey Graham's seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 77%31%
South Carolina held a special Republican primary on August 11, 2026, to select the party's nominee for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Lindsey Graham's death. The primary featured a crowded field including Darline Graham Nordone, Ralph Norman, Russell Fry, Mark Sanford, and Mark Lynch. Darline Graham Nordone led the race, benefiting from her appointment and Trump's endorsement, with other candidates trailing.
Aug 11 2026
Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman advance to runoff in South Carolina Senate special primary
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 77%31%
In the August 11 special Republican primary, Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman secured the top two spots, advancing to a runoff election. This outcome reflected the market's shift with Nordone's strong position and Norman's resilience despite Trump's endorsement of Nordone.
Aug 11 2026
Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advance to runoff in South Carolina Senate special primary
In the August 11 special Republican primary, Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman secured the top two spots, advancing to a runoff election scheduled for August 25. This outcome reflected the competitive nature of the race and the divided support among Republican voters.
Aug 5 2026
Early voting begins for South Carolina special Republican Senate primary
Early voting started for the special Republican primary election to select the nominee to replace Lindsey Graham, intensifying campaign efforts and voter engagement ahead of the August 11 primary date.
Jul 28 2026
Candidate filing period closes for South Carolina special Senate primary
The one-week candidate filing period for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham closed, finalizing the crowded field of candidates including Darline Graham Nordone, Ralph Norman, Mark Sanford, Russell Fry, and Mark Lynch.
Jul 24 2026
Darline Graham Nordone files to run in special primary
Darline Graham Nordone rises to 72%2%
Interim Senator Darline Graham Nordone formally submitted her paperwork to run in the special Republican primary to retain the Senate seat vacated by her late brother. This filing confirmed her intention to seek a full term in the Senate.
Jul 23 2026
Mark Sanford announces run for South Carolina Senate special election
Former South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat. Sanford emphasized fiscal responsibility and the national debt as key issues in his campaign.
Jul 23 2026
Mark Sanford enters South Carolina Senate special election race
Mark Sanford plunges to 0%50%
Former South Carolina Governor and U.S. Representative Mark Sanford announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat. Sanford emphasized fiscal responsibility and the national debt as key campaign issues.
Jul 23 2026
Mark Sanford announces candidacy for South Carolina Senate special election
Mark Sanford plunges to 2%48%
Former South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford announced his run for the Senate seat, focusing on fiscal responsibility and national debt concerns. His entry added to the crowded field but his market probability remained low, reflecting limited impact on frontrunners.
Jul 21 2026
Nancy Mace endorses Ralph Norman, declines Senate run
Ralph Norman plunges to 31%15%
Congresswoman Nancy Mace announced she would not run for the Senate seat, citing unfinished business, and instead endorsed Ralph Norman in the special Republican primary. This endorsement was significant as Mace was a notable figure in South Carolina politics and had previously considered running.
Jul 20 2026
Russell Fry announces candidacy for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Russell Fry plunges to 16%29%
Rep. Russell Fry officially announced his campaign for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Lindsey Graham's death. Fry is a Trump ally and positioned himself as a conservative MAGA candidate, adding to the competitive Republican field.
Jul 20 2026
Darline Graham Nordone announces candidacy for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone rises to 72%4%
Darline Graham Nordone announced she would run for a full six-year Senate term in the special Republican primary, seeking to continue her late brother's legacy. This announcement solidified her position as a major candidate in the race.
Jul 20 2026
Russell Fry enters South Carolina Senate race
Russell Fry drops to 38%7%
U.S. Representative Russell Fry announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham. Fry positioned himself as a conservative MAGA candidate and received President Trump's reported encouragement to run.
Jul 20 2026
Donald Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 81%18%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone to run for a full term in the U.S. Senate, urging her to run for the seat and lending significant weight to her candidacy in the special primary.
Jul 20 2026
Rep. Russell Fry announces candidacy for South Carolina Senate seat
Russell Fry jumps to 11%7%
Congressman Russell Fry announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham. Initially, Fry had Trump's support to run, which increased his market probability, but Trump's later endorsement of Nordone complicated Fry's position.
Jul 20 2026
Darline Graham Nordone announces run for full Senate term with Trump's endorsement
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 80%11%
Darline Graham Nordone announced her candidacy for a full term in the U.S. Senate, receiving President Donald Trump's complete and total endorsement. This endorsement significantly boosted her profile and market position in the special Republican primary.
Jul 18 2026
Ralph Norman announces Senate bid despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman plunges to 18%27%
Congressman Ralph Norman declared his candidacy for the Senate seat, running against Trump-endorsed Darline Graham Nordone. He positioned himself as a conservative fighter with endorsements from Senators Mike Lee and Rick Scott, challenging the establishment choice.
Jul 18 2026
Ralph Norman announces run for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman plunges to 24%21%
Congressman Ralph Norman entered the special primary race despite President Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham, gaining endorsements from Senators Mike Lee and Rick Scott, which affected his market position.
Jul 18 2026
Rep. Ralph Norman announces run for South Carolina Senate seat despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman plunges to 16%29%
Ralph Norman declared his candidacy for the Senate seat despite President Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham Nordone. Norman received endorsements from GOP Senators Mike Lee and Rick Scott, positioning him as a significant challenger and affecting market dynamics.
Jul 18 2026
Ralph Norman announces Senate run despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman drops to 31%14%
Congressman Ralph Norman announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, despite President Donald Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham Nordone. Norman received endorsements from Senators Rick Scott and Mike Lee, positioning him as a strong conservative contender.
Jul 14 2026
Mark Lynch renews Senate campaign following Lindsey Graham's death
Mark Lynch plunges to 1%44%
Businessman Mark Lynch, who challenged Lindsey Graham in the June primary, renewed his campaign for the special Republican primary after Graham's death. Despite his efforts, his market probability remained low, indicating limited traction.
Jul 14 2026
Darline Graham Nordone sworn in as U.S. Senator
Darline Graham Nordone rises to 70%2%
Darline Graham Nordone was sworn in on July 14, 2026, officially becoming the junior U.S. Senator from South Carolina. Her swearing-in followed her appointment and was a significant step in her campaign to retain the seat in the special primary.
Jul 14 2026
President Donald Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 69%51%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone to run for a full term in the special Republican primary, boosting her profile and market position significantly. Trump's endorsement is influential in South Carolina GOP politics and shifted support towards Nordone.
Jul 13 2026
Governor McMaster appoints Darline Graham Nordone to fill late Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 69%63%
South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham Nordone, sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham, to serve the remainder of his term, making her the first woman to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate. This appointment gave her immediate incumbency advantage and recognition in the special primary race.
Jul 13 2026
South Carolina Governor appoints Darline Graham Nordone to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 63%57%
Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham Nordone, Lindsey Graham's sister, as interim U.S. Senator to serve the remainder of her brother's term, marking the first woman to represent South Carolina in the Senate. This appointment immediately positioned her as a key candidate in the upcoming special primary.
Jul 13 2026
Darline Graham Nordone appointed to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 68%62%
South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham Nordone, sister of the late Lindsey Graham, to serve the remainder of his Senate term. This appointment made her the first woman to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate and positioned her as a key candidate in the upcoming special primary.
Jul 12 2026
Nancy Mace considers Senate bid but ultimately declines
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace initially considered running for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat following his death and began polling her viability. However, she later announced she would not run, citing unfinished business and endorsing Ralph Norman instead, impacting the race dynamics.
Jul 12 2026
Rep. Nancy Mace considers but ultimately declines to run for Senate seat
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace initially considered running for the Senate seat but announced she would not run, citing unfinished business and focusing on justice issues. She later endorsed Ralph Norman, influencing his support base and market position.
"South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 15 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Darline Graham Nordone" di 78%, diikuti oleh "Ralph Norman" di 23%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 78¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 78% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.
Per hari ini, "South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner" telah menghasilkan $1.6 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jul 12, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.
Untuk trading di "South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner," jelajahi 15 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.
Unggulan saat ini untuk "South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner" adalah "Darline Graham Nordone" di 78%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 78% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Ralph Norman" di 23%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.
Aturan resolusi untuk "South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.
Ya. Kamu tidak perlu trading untuk tetap terinformasi. Halaman ini berfungsi sebagai pelacak langsung untuk "South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner." Probabilitas hasil diperbarui secara real-time saat trade baru masuk. Kamu bisa menandai halaman ini dan memeriksa bagian komentar untuk melihat apa yang dikatakan trader lain. Kamu juga bisa menggunakan filter rentang waktu pada grafik untuk melihat bagaimana peluang bergeser seiring waktu. Ini jendela real-time gratis tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.
Peluang Polymarket ditetapkan oleh trader nyata yang menaruh uang nyata di balik keyakinan mereka, yang cenderung menghasilkan prediksi yang akurat. Dengan $1.6 million diperdagangkan pada "South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner," harga-harga ini mengumpulkan pengetahuan dan keyakinan kolektif dari ribuan peserta — sering kali mengalahkan jajak pendapat, prakiraan ahli, dan survei tradisional. Pasar prediksi seperti Polymarket memiliki rekam jejak akurasi yang kuat, terutama saat event mendekati tanggal resolusinya. Misalnya, Polymarket memiliki skor akurasi satu bulan sebesar 94%. Untuk statistik terbaru tentang akurasi prediksi Polymarket, kunjungi halaman akurasi di Polymarket.
Untuk melakukan trade pertamamu di "South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner," daftar akun Polymarket gratis dan isi dengan crypto, kartu kredit atau debit, atau transfer bank. Setelah akunmu terisi, kembali ke halaman ini, pilih hasil yang ingin kamu trading, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu baru di pasar prediksi, klik link "Cara kerjanya" di bagian atas halaman Polymarket mana pun untuk panduan langkah demi langkah tentang cara trading.
Di Polymarket, harga setiap hasil mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Harga 78¢ untuk "Darline Graham Nordone" di pasar "South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner" berarti trader secara kolektif percaya ada sekitar peluang 78% bahwa "Darline Graham Nordone" akan menjadi hasil yang benar. Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" di 78¢ dan hasilnya benar, kamu menerima $1,00 per saham — keuntungan 22¢ per saham. Jika salah, saham tersebut bernilai $0.
Tanggal berakhir pasar "South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner" telah lewat, tetapi pasar belum diselesaikan secara resmi. Tanggal berakhir menunjukkan kapan event yang mendasarinya diperkirakan terjadi atau dapat diketahui. Ini bukan saat trading berhenti. Pasar tetap terbuka untuk trading sampai hasilnya diselesaikan secara resmi melalui proses resolusi. Kamu masih bisa membeli, menjual, atau menutup posisimu saat pasar menunggu resolusi. Periksa pelacak status resolusi dan bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini untuk pembaruan tentang jadwal resolusi.
Pasar "South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner" memiliki diskusi yang berkembang dengan 8 komentar di mana trader berbagi analisis, memperdebatkan hasil, dan membahas perkembangan terkini. Scroll ke bawah ke bagian komentar untuk membaca apa yang dipikirkan peserta lain. Kamu juga bisa memfilter berdasarkan "Top Holder" untuk melihat posisi trader terbesar pasar, atau periksa tab "Aktivitas" untuk feed real-time dari trade.
Polymarket adalah pasar prediksi terbesar di dunia, di mana kamu bisa tetap terinformasi dan mendapatkan keuntungan dari pengetahuanmu tentang event dunia nyata. Trader membeli dan menjual saham pada hasil untuk topik mulai dari politik dan pemilu hingga crypto, keuangan, olahraga, teknologi, dan budaya, termasuk pasar seperti "South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner." Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time yang didukung oleh keyakinan finansial, sering kali memberikan sinyal yang lebih cepat dan lebih akurat daripada jajak pendapat, pakar, atau survei tradisional.
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