Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 90.4% implied probability for Barack Obama being arrested before 2027, reflecting the absence of any official DOJ indictments, charges, or active federal investigations targeting the former president personally. Recent social media rumors and unverified reports of a Florida grand jury probing Russiagate-era officials under FBI Director Kash Patel have circulated since early April, but no primary announcements from the Justice Department or court filings confirm proceedings against Obama, echoing prior declassifications from 2025 by DNI Tulsi Gabbard that alleged misconduct without resulting in prosecutions. Historical precedent shows no sitting or former presidents arrested absent extraordinary evidence, and traders price low risk of escalation absent concrete legal developments like a special counsel referral or subpoena compliance by year-end 2026.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 90.4% implied probability for Barack Obama being arrested before 2027, reflecting the absence of any official DOJ indictments, charges, or active federal investigations targeting the former president personally. Recent social media rumors and unverified reports of a Florida grand jury probing Russiagate-era officials under FBI Director Kash Patel have circulated since early April, but no primary announcements from the Justice Department or court filings confirm proceedings against Obama, echoing prior declassifications from 2025 by DNI Tulsi Gabbard that alleged misconduct without resulting in prosecutions. Historical precedent shows no sitting or former presidents arrested absent extraordinary evidence, and traders price low risk of escalation absent concrete legal developments like a special counsel referral or subpoena compliance by year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
Volume
$4,096Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 90.4% implied probability for Barack Obama being arrested before 2027, reflecting the absence of any official DOJ indictments, charges, or active federal investigations targeting the former president personally. Recent social media rumors and unverified reports of a Florida grand jury probing Russiagate-era officials under FBI Director Kash Patel have circulated since early April, but no primary announcements from the Justice Department or court filings confirm proceedings against Obama, echoing prior declassifications from 2025 by DNI Tulsi Gabbard that alleged misconduct without resulting in prosecutions. Historical precedent shows no sitting or former presidents arrested absent extraordinary evidence, and traders price low risk of escalation absent concrete legal developments like a special counsel referral or subpoena compliance by year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,096Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 90.4% implied probability for Barack Obama being arrested before 2027, reflecting the absence of any official DOJ indictments, charges, or active federal investigations targeting the former president personally. Recent social media rumors and unverified reports of a Florida grand jury probing Russiagate-era officials under FBI Director Kash Patel have circulated since early April, but no primary announcements from the Justice Department or court filings confirm proceedings against Obama, echoing prior declassifications from 2025 by DNI Tulsi Gabbard that alleged misconduct without resulting in prosecutions. Historical precedent shows no sitting or former presidents arrested absent extraordinary evidence, and traders price low risk of escalation absent concrete legal developments like a special counsel referral or subpoena compliance by year-end 2026.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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