USGS seismic monitoring confirms no magnitude 8.0+ megaquake has struck globally in 2026 through mid-April, with the largest events being a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1—both below the market threshold. This absence aligns with historical patterns of roughly one M8+ earthquake annually worldwide, rendering the trader-implied 81.5% "No" probability a consensus on low short-term odds amid normal global seismicity. Recent studies on Cascadia and Nankai Trough highlight long-term risks but no imminent precursors, as short-term earthquake forecasting remains impossible due to complex fault dynamics. Ongoing USGS real-time data releases could shift sentiment if activity escalates before June 30.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$49,186 Vol.
$49,186 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$49,186 Vol.
$49,186 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS seismic monitoring confirms no magnitude 8.0+ megaquake has struck globally in 2026 through mid-April, with the largest events being a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1—both below the market threshold. This absence aligns with historical patterns of roughly one M8+ earthquake annually worldwide, rendering the trader-implied 81.5% "No" probability a consensus on low short-term odds amid normal global seismicity. Recent studies on Cascadia and Nankai Trough highlight long-term risks but no imminent precursors, as short-term earthquake forecasting remains impossible due to complex fault dynamics. Ongoing USGS real-time data releases could shift sentiment if activity escalates before June 30.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$49,186Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS seismic monitoring confirms no magnitude 8.0+ megaquake has struck globally in 2026 through mid-April, with the largest events being a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1—both below the market threshold. This absence aligns with historical patterns of roughly one M8+ earthquake annually worldwide, rendering the trader-implied 81.5% "No" probability a consensus on low short-term odds amid normal global seismicity. Recent studies on Cascadia and Nankai Trough highlight long-term risks but no imminent precursors, as short-term earthquake forecasting remains impossible due to complex fault dynamics. Ongoing USGS real-time data releases could shift sentiment if activity escalates before June 30.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$49,186Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...USGS seismic monitoring confirms no magnitude 8.0+ megaquake has struck globally in 2026 through mid-April, with the largest events being a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1—both below the market threshold. This absence aligns with historical patterns of roughly one M8+ earthquake annually worldwide, rendering the trader-implied 81.5% "No" probability a consensus on low short-term odds amid normal global seismicity. Recent studies on Cascadia and Nankai Trough highlight long-term risks but no imminent precursors, as short-term earthquake forecasting remains impossible due to complex fault dynamics. Ongoing USGS real-time data releases could shift sentiment if activity escalates before June 30.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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