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Politik·Pemilihan Umum Global

Farrer By-Election Winner

icon for Farrer By-Election Winner
Politik·Pemilihan Umum Global

Farrer By-Election Winner

David Farley 72%

Michelle Milthorpe 28%

Helen Dalton <1%

Rebecca Scriven <1%

Polymarket

$155,136 Vol.

David Farley 72%

Michelle Milthorpe 28%

Helen Dalton <1%

Rebecca Scriven <1%

Polymarket

$155,136 Vol.

icon for David Farley

David Farley

$1,971 Vol.

72%

icon for Michelle Milthorpe

Michelle Milthorpe

$35,079 Vol.

28%

icon for Helen Dalton

Helen Dalton

$23,080 Vol.

1%

icon for Rebecca Scriven

Rebecca Scriven

$94,149 Vol.

1%

icon for Raissa Butkowski

Raissa Butkowski

$858 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).In the upcoming May 9 by-election for the New South Wales federal seat of Farrer—vacated by former Liberal deputy leader Sussan Ley—trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors One Nation candidate David Farley at 67% implied probability, ahead of independent Michelle Milthorpe at 33%, driven by recent UComms polls showing Farley leading 52-53% on two-candidate-preferred counts despite near-tied primaries around 30% each. Coalition parties' confirmed preference deals directing Liberal and Nationals votes to One Nation over Milthorpe have solidified Farley's edge, amid regional voter shifts toward One Nation amid dissatisfaction with major parties, whose primaries trail below 20%. With two weeks until polls close, campaign spending, endorsements like Bob Katter's for Milthorpe, and final preference flows remain pivotal uncertainties.

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Volume
$155,136
Tanggal Berakhir
May 9, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).In the upcoming May 9 by-election for the New South Wales federal seat of Farrer—vacated by former Liberal deputy leader Sussan Ley—trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors One Nation candidate David Farley at 67% implied probability, ahead of independent Michelle Milthorpe at 33%, driven by recent UComms polls showing Farley leading 52-53% on two-candidate-preferred counts despite near-tied primaries around 30% each. Coalition parties' confirmed preference deals directing Liberal and Nationals votes to One Nation over Milthorpe have solidified Farley's edge, amid regional voter shifts toward One Nation amid dissatisfaction with major parties, whose primaries trail below 20%. With two weeks until polls close, campaign spending, endorsements like Bob Katter's for Milthorpe, and final preference flows remain pivotal uncertainties.

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Volume
$155,136
Tanggal Berakhir
May 9, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Farrer By-Election Winner" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 5 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "David Farley" di 72%, diikuti oleh "Michelle Milthorpe" di 28%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 72¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 72% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Farrer By-Election Winner" telah menghasilkan $155.1K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Feb 17, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Farrer By-Election Winner," jelajahi 5 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Farrer By-Election Winner" adalah "David Farley" di 72%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 72% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Michelle Milthorpe" di 28%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Farrer By-Election Winner" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.