Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 96.3% for EU dissolution before 2027, driven by the absence of any official Article 50 invocations or treaty termination moves among the 27 member states. Recent fringe developments, including a February 2026 Frexit protest in Paris and rhetorical Polexit debates amid Poland's domestic power struggles, have failed to gain traction, with 2025 polls showing only 24-25% support for Polish exit and no imminent legal steps. Brexit's multi-year timeline highlights procedural hurdles requiring parliamentary approval and referendums. EU continuity persists via regulatory advances like Russian gas phase-out by 2027. Realistic disruptions—major sovereign debt crises, war escalations, or synchronized populist victories in key elections—remain low-probability tail risks.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiEU dissolves before 2027?
EU dissolves before 2027?
$161,975 Vol.
$161,975 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$161,975 Vol.
$161,975 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 96.3% for EU dissolution before 2027, driven by the absence of any official Article 50 invocations or treaty termination moves among the 27 member states. Recent fringe developments, including a February 2026 Frexit protest in Paris and rhetorical Polexit debates amid Poland's domestic power struggles, have failed to gain traction, with 2025 polls showing only 24-25% support for Polish exit and no imminent legal steps. Brexit's multi-year timeline highlights procedural hurdles requiring parliamentary approval and referendums. EU continuity persists via regulatory advances like Russian gas phase-out by 2027. Realistic disruptions—major sovereign debt crises, war escalations, or synchronized populist victories in key elections—remain low-probability tail risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$161,975Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 96.3% for EU dissolution before 2027, driven by the absence of any official Article 50 invocations or treaty termination moves among the 27 member states. Recent fringe developments, including a February 2026 Frexit protest in Paris and rhetorical Polexit debates amid Poland's domestic power struggles, have failed to gain traction, with 2025 polls showing only 24-25% support for Polish exit and no imminent legal steps. Brexit's multi-year timeline highlights procedural hurdles requiring parliamentary approval and referendums. EU continuity persists via regulatory advances like Russian gas phase-out by 2027. Realistic disruptions—major sovereign debt crises, war escalations, or synchronized populist victories in key elections—remain low-probability tail risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$161,975Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 96.3% for EU dissolution before 2027, driven by the absence of any official Article 50 invocations or treaty termination moves among the 27 member states. Recent fringe developments, including a February 2026 Frexit protest in Paris and rhetorical Polexit debates amid Poland's domestic power struggles, have failed to gain traction, with 2025 polls showing only 24-25% support for Polish exit and no imminent legal steps. Brexit's multi-year timeline highlights procedural hurdles requiring parliamentary approval and referendums. EU continuity persists via regulatory advances like Russian gas phase-out by 2027. Realistic disruptions—major sovereign debt crises, war escalations, or synchronized populist victories in key elections—remain low-probability tail risks.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan