OPEC+ members continue to coordinate production quotas and hold regular ministerial meetings through mid-2026, with recent decisions in February, March, April, and June reaffirming the Declaration of Cooperation and pausing or adjusting output increments amid evolving supply-demand dynamics. This sustained collaboration among core producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability that the organization will not dissolve by year-end. While the UAE’s exit in May 2026 highlights quota tensions, it has not disrupted broader cartel functionality or prompted additional withdrawals. A credible dissolution scenario would require multiple major members to exit simultaneously or a fundamental breakdown in supply-management consensus, neither of which appears imminent based on current policy actions and market forecasts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$29,584 Vol.
$29,584 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$29,584 Vol.
$29,584 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC+ members continue to coordinate production quotas and hold regular ministerial meetings through mid-2026, with recent decisions in February, March, April, and June reaffirming the Declaration of Cooperation and pausing or adjusting output increments amid evolving supply-demand dynamics. This sustained collaboration among core producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability that the organization will not dissolve by year-end. While the UAE’s exit in May 2026 highlights quota tensions, it has not disrupted broader cartel functionality or prompted additional withdrawals. A credible dissolution scenario would require multiple major members to exit simultaneously or a fundamental breakdown in supply-management consensus, neither of which appears imminent based on current policy actions and market forecasts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$29,584Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC+ members continue to coordinate production quotas and hold regular ministerial meetings through mid-2026, with recent decisions in February, March, April, and June reaffirming the Declaration of Cooperation and pausing or adjusting output increments amid evolving supply-demand dynamics. This sustained collaboration among core producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability that the organization will not dissolve by year-end. While the UAE’s exit in May 2026 highlights quota tensions, it has not disrupted broader cartel functionality or prompted additional withdrawals. A credible dissolution scenario would require multiple major members to exit simultaneously or a fundamental breakdown in supply-management consensus, neither of which appears imminent based on current policy actions and market forecasts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$29,584Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OPEC+ members continue to coordinate production quotas and hold regular ministerial meetings through mid-2026, with recent decisions in February, March, April, and June reaffirming the Declaration of Cooperation and pausing or adjusting output increments amid evolving supply-demand dynamics. This sustained collaboration among core producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability that the organization will not dissolve by year-end. While the UAE’s exit in May 2026 highlights quota tensions, it has not disrupted broader cartel functionality or prompted additional withdrawals. A credible dissolution scenario would require multiple major members to exit simultaneously or a fundamental breakdown in supply-management consensus, neither of which appears imminent based on current policy actions and market forecasts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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