Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting the cartel's historical resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1, reducing OPEC's global supply control from around 30% to 26%. Core members including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia reaffirmed unity via recent OPEC+ production adjustments—such as the April 5 virtual meeting hiking quotas by 206,000 barrels per day amid Middle East tensions—prioritizing market stability over fragmentation. Oil benchmarks like Brent crude remain supported by coordinated cuts and spare capacity audits revealing limited buffers. Realistic challenges include cascading exits if quota disputes escalate or Iran war disruptions fracture compliance, with the next ministerial monitoring meeting as a key catalyst.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting the cartel's historical resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1, reducing OPEC's global supply control from around 30% to 26%. Core members including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia reaffirmed unity via recent OPEC+ production adjustments—such as the April 5 virtual meeting hiking quotas by 206,000 barrels per day amid Middle East tensions—prioritizing market stability over fragmentation. Oil benchmarks like Brent crude remain supported by coordinated cuts and spare capacity audits revealing limited buffers. Realistic challenges include cascading exits if quota disputes escalate or Iran war disruptions fracture compliance, with the next ministerial monitoring meeting as a key catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,400Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting the cartel's historical resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1, reducing OPEC's global supply control from around 30% to 26%. Core members including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia reaffirmed unity via recent OPEC+ production adjustments—such as the April 5 virtual meeting hiking quotas by 206,000 barrels per day amid Middle East tensions—prioritizing market stability over fragmentation. Oil benchmarks like Brent crude remain supported by coordinated cuts and spare capacity audits revealing limited buffers. Realistic challenges include cascading exits if quota disputes escalate or Iran war disruptions fracture compliance, with the next ministerial monitoring meeting as a key catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,400Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting the cartel's historical resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1, reducing OPEC's global supply control from around 30% to 26%. Core members including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia reaffirmed unity via recent OPEC+ production adjustments—such as the April 5 virtual meeting hiking quotas by 206,000 barrels per day amid Middle East tensions—prioritizing market stability over fragmentation. Oil benchmarks like Brent crude remain supported by coordinated cuts and spare capacity audits revealing limited buffers. Realistic challenges include cascading exits if quota disputes escalate or Iran war disruptions fracture compliance, with the next ministerial monitoring meeting as a key catalyst.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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