Governor Tim Walz announced in January 2026 that he would not seek a third term amid ongoing scrutiny of his administration’s oversight of child-care assistance programs and related fraud investigations. His current term runs through the end of 2026, and he has given no public indication of stepping down early. Primary sources show continued focus on completing his term without reference to resignation. Trader consensus reflected in current market pricing assigns low probability to an announcement of resignation before late 2026 or early 2027, consistent with historical patterns for governors who decline reelection. Key upcoming factors include any new legislative or investigative developments before the term ends, though none scheduled at present appear likely to alter that trajectory.