Polymarket traders price a subdued Q1 2026 Mexico GDP growth, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered at 45.3% for 0.0-0.5% and 36.5% for 0.5-1.0%, driven by January's sharp -0.9% month-on-month contraction in the INEGI IGAE monthly GDP proxy—the weakest since mid-2025—alongside monthly declines in gross fixed investment and private consumption. This weakness follows 2025's annualized 0.8% GDP deceleration, tempering optimism despite resilient U.S. demand and nearshoring tailwinds. Key swing factors include February's 3.4% manufacturing rebound and 2.1% anticipated private consumption growth per IOCP, with February IGAE data due late April and the official Q1 timely GDP estimate on April 30 poised to resolve uncertainty amid full-year consensus forecasts near 1.6% from Banxico and IMF.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया0.5-1.0% 58%
1.0-1.5% 35%
<0.0% 10.9%
2.0-2.5% 10.1%
नया
नया
30 अप्रैल, 2026
<0.0%
19%
0.0-0.5%
43%
0.5-1.0%
39%
1.0-1.5%
21%
1.5-2.0%
7%
2.0-2.5%
10%
>2.5%
4%
0.5-1.0% 58%
1.0-1.5% 35%
<0.0% 10.9%
2.0-2.5% 10.1%
नया
नया
30 अप्रैल, 2026
<0.0%
$431 वॉल्यूम
19%
0.0-0.5%
$348 वॉल्यूम
43%
0.5-1.0%
$567 वॉल्यूम
39%
1.0-1.5%
$720 वॉल्यूम
21%
1.5-2.0%
$408 वॉल्यूम
7%
2.0-2.5%
$139 वॉल्यूम
10%
>2.5%
$147 वॉल्यूम
4%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a subdued Q1 2026 Mexico GDP growth, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered at 45.3% for 0.0-0.5% and 36.5% for 0.5-1.0%, driven by January's sharp -0.9% month-on-month contraction in the INEGI IGAE monthly GDP proxy—the weakest since mid-2025—alongside monthly declines in gross fixed investment and private consumption. This weakness follows 2025's annualized 0.8% GDP deceleration, tempering optimism despite resilient U.S. demand and nearshoring tailwinds. Key swing factors include February's 3.4% manufacturing rebound and 2.1% anticipated private consumption growth per IOCP, with February IGAE data due late April and the official Q1 timely GDP estimate on April 30 poised to resolve uncertainty amid full-year consensus forecasts near 1.6% from Banxico and IMF.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$2,759समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a subdued Q1 2026 Mexico GDP growth, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered at 45.3% for 0.0-0.5% and 36.5% for 0.5-1.0%, driven by January's sharp -0.9% month-on-month contraction in the INEGI IGAE monthly GDP proxy—the weakest since mid-2025—alongside monthly declines in gross fixed investment and private consumption. This weakness follows 2025's annualized 0.8% GDP deceleration, tempering optimism despite resilient U.S. demand and nearshoring tailwinds. Key swing factors include February's 3.4% manufacturing rebound and 2.1% anticipated private consumption growth per IOCP, with February IGAE data due late April and the official Q1 timely GDP estimate on April 30 poised to resolve uncertainty amid full-year consensus forecasts near 1.6% from Banxico and IMF.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
वॉल्यूम
$2,759समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a subdued Q1 2026 Mexico GDP growth, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered at 45.3% for 0.0-0.5% and 36.5% for 0.5-1.0%, driven by January's sharp -0.9% month-on-month contraction in the INEGI IGAE monthly GDP proxy—the weakest since mid-2025—alongside monthly declines in gross fixed investment and private consumption. This weakness follows 2025's annualized 0.8% GDP deceleration, tempering optimism despite resilient U.S. demand and nearshoring tailwinds. Key swing factors include February's 3.4% manufacturing rebound and 2.1% anticipated private consumption growth per IOCP, with February IGAE data due late April and the official Q1 timely GDP estimate on April 30 poised to resolve uncertainty amid full-year consensus forecasts near 1.6% from Banxico and IMF.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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