Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in late February and early March 2026 severely damaged key Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz enrichment plant and the Taleghan-2 site linked to potential weaponization testing, extending Tehran's estimated nuclear breakout time to 1-3 months or longer per IAEA assessments. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi confirmed no structured program for nuclear weapons, with Iran restricting access to bombed sites but continuing limited 60% uranium enrichment amid uncertain stockpiles. A U.S.-brokered two-week ceasefire on April 7, followed by Iran's indication to transfer enriched uranium and upcoming Islamabad negotiations, signals de-escalation, reinforcing trader consensus at 92.5% against a test before 2027. Late-breaking escalation, regime collapse, or covert rebuilding could shift odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
हाँ
$170,981 वॉल्यूम
$170,981 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$170,981 वॉल्यूम
$170,981 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in late February and early March 2026 severely damaged key Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz enrichment plant and the Taleghan-2 site linked to potential weaponization testing, extending Tehran's estimated nuclear breakout time to 1-3 months or longer per IAEA assessments. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi confirmed no structured program for nuclear weapons, with Iran restricting access to bombed sites but continuing limited 60% uranium enrichment amid uncertain stockpiles. A U.S.-brokered two-week ceasefire on April 7, followed by Iran's indication to transfer enriched uranium and upcoming Islamabad negotiations, signals de-escalation, reinforcing trader consensus at 92.5% against a test before 2027. Late-breaking escalation, regime collapse, or covert rebuilding could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$170,981समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in late February and early March 2026 severely damaged key Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz enrichment plant and the Taleghan-2 site linked to potential weaponization testing, extending Tehran's estimated nuclear breakout time to 1-3 months or longer per IAEA assessments. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi confirmed no structured program for nuclear weapons, with Iran restricting access to bombed sites but continuing limited 60% uranium enrichment amid uncertain stockpiles. A U.S.-brokered two-week ceasefire on April 7, followed by Iran's indication to transfer enriched uranium and upcoming Islamabad negotiations, signals de-escalation, reinforcing trader consensus at 92.5% against a test before 2027. Late-breaking escalation, regime collapse, or covert rebuilding could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$170,981समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in late February and early March 2026 severely damaged key Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz enrichment plant and the Taleghan-2 site linked to potential weaponization testing, extending Tehran's estimated nuclear breakout time to 1-3 months or longer per IAEA assessments. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi confirmed no structured program for nuclear weapons, with Iran restricting access to bombed sites but continuing limited 60% uranium enrichment amid uncertain stockpiles. A U.S.-brokered two-week ceasefire on April 7, followed by Iran's indication to transfer enriched uranium and upcoming Islamabad negotiations, signals de-escalation, reinforcing trader consensus at 92.5% against a test before 2027. Late-breaking escalation, regime collapse, or covert rebuilding could shift odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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