Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure beyond April 30, driven by its survival through the devastating 2026 Iran war, where U.S. and Israeli strikes targeted military infrastructure and killed senior leaders, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidated control via an interim committee amid a fragile ceasefire since April 8. Ongoing crackdowns have suppressed 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic collapse and sanctions, with security forces remaining loyal despite internet blackouts and executions. Recent Strait of Hormuz tensions and nuclear suspension talks signal diplomatic maneuvering rather than imminent overthrow. With just 12 days left, barriers to rapid regime change—lacking mass defections or coup signals—dominate; only renewed escalation, total economic implosion, or internal IRGC fracture could shift odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या 30 अप्रैल तक ईरानी शासन गिर जाएगा?
क्या 30 अप्रैल तक ईरानी शासन गिर जाएगा?
हाँ
$34,527,558 वॉल्यूम
$34,527,558 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
हाँ
$34,527,558 वॉल्यूम
$34,527,558 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure beyond April 30, driven by its survival through the devastating 2026 Iran war, where U.S. and Israeli strikes targeted military infrastructure and killed senior leaders, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidated control via an interim committee amid a fragile ceasefire since April 8. Ongoing crackdowns have suppressed 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic collapse and sanctions, with security forces remaining loyal despite internet blackouts and executions. Recent Strait of Hormuz tensions and nuclear suspension talks signal diplomatic maneuvering rather than imminent overthrow. With just 12 days left, barriers to rapid regime change—lacking mass defections or coup signals—dominate; only renewed escalation, total economic implosion, or internal IRGC fracture could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$34,527,558समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure beyond April 30, driven by its survival through the devastating 2026 Iran war, where U.S. and Israeli strikes targeted military infrastructure and killed senior leaders, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidated control via an interim committee amid a fragile ceasefire since April 8. Ongoing crackdowns have suppressed 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic collapse and sanctions, with security forces remaining loyal despite internet blackouts and executions. Recent Strait of Hormuz tensions and nuclear suspension talks signal diplomatic maneuvering rather than imminent overthrow. With just 12 days left, barriers to rapid regime change—lacking mass defections or coup signals—dominate; only renewed escalation, total economic implosion, or internal IRGC fracture could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$34,528,521समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure beyond April 30, driven by its survival through the devastating 2026 Iran war, where U.S. and Israeli strikes targeted military infrastructure and killed senior leaders, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidated control via an interim committee amid a fragile ceasefire since April 8. Ongoing crackdowns have suppressed 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic collapse and sanctions, with security forces remaining loyal despite internet blackouts and executions. Recent Strait of Hormuz tensions and nuclear suspension talks signal diplomatic maneuvering rather than imminent overthrow. With just 12 days left, barriers to rapid regime change—lacking mass defections or coup signals—dominate; only renewed escalation, total economic implosion, or internal IRGC fracture could shift odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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