Market icon

Une athlète féminine transgenre participera-t-elle aux Jeux d'hiver de 2026 ?

Market icon

Une athlète féminine transgenre participera-t-elle aux Jeux d'hiver de 2026 ?

Oui

<1% chance
Polymarket

$10,839 Vol.

Oui

<1% chance
Polymarket

$10,839 Vol.

The next Olympics are scheduled to be held in Milan–Cortina from February 6 to 22, 2026. Recent reporting indicates the IOC is considering a ban on transgender women athletes competing in the female category. You can read more about that here: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/nov/10/ioc-edges-closer-to-ban-on-transgender-women-in-female-olympic-events.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is widely and credibly confirmed that at least one transgender woman athlete is competing in any female category event at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games by February 22, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, 'transgender women athlete' refers to an athlete assigned male at birth who identifies as female. This definition excludes intersex athletes (including those with differences in sex development) whose variations in sex characteristics do not involve a gender identity different from their assigned sex at birth, unless the athlete publicly identifies as transgender and this is widely and credibly confirmed.

Speculation, rumor, or unverified discussion suggesting that an athlete might be transgender will not suffice.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,839
Date de fin
Feb 5, 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 14, 2025, 5:39 PM ET
The next Olympics are scheduled to be held in Milan–Cortina from February 6 to 22, 2026. Recent reporting indicates the IOC is considering a ban on transgender women athletes competing in the female category. You can read more about that here: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/nov/10/ioc-edges-closer-to-ban-on-transgender-women-in-female-olympic-events. This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is widely and credibly confirmed that at least one transgender woman athlete is competing in any female category event at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games by February 22, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, 'transgender women athlete' refers to an athlete assigned male at birth who identifies as female. This definition excludes intersex athletes (including those with differences in sex development) whose variations in sex characteristics do not involve a gender identity different from their assigned sex at birth, unless the athlete publicly identifies as transgender and this is widely and credibly confirmed. Speculation, rumor, or unverified discussion suggesting that an athlete might be transgender will not suffice. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Résultat proposé: Non

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Non

The next Olympics are scheduled to be held in Milan–Cortina from February 6 to 22, 2026. Recent reporting indicates the IOC is considering a ban on transgender women athletes competing in the female category. You can read more about that here: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/nov/10/ioc-edges-closer-to-ban-on-transgender-women-in-female-olympic-events.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is widely and credibly confirmed that at least one transgender woman athlete is competing in any female category event at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games by February 22, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, 'transgender women athlete' refers to an athlete assigned male at birth who identifies as female. This definition excludes intersex athletes (including those with differences in sex development) whose variations in sex characteristics do not involve a gender identity different from their assigned sex at birth, unless the athlete publicly identifies as transgender and this is widely and credibly confirmed.

Speculation, rumor, or unverified discussion suggesting that an athlete might be transgender will not suffice.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,839
Date de fin
Feb 5, 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 14, 2025, 5:39 PM ET
The next Olympics are scheduled to be held in Milan–Cortina from February 6 to 22, 2026. Recent reporting indicates the IOC is considering a ban on transgender women athletes competing in the female category. You can read more about that here: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/nov/10/ioc-edges-closer-to-ban-on-transgender-women-in-female-olympic-events. This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is widely and credibly confirmed that at least one transgender woman athlete is competing in any female category event at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games by February 22, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, 'transgender women athlete' refers to an athlete assigned male at birth who identifies as female. This definition excludes intersex athletes (including those with differences in sex development) whose variations in sex characteristics do not involve a gender identity different from their assigned sex at birth, unless the athlete publicly identifies as transgender and this is widely and credibly confirmed. Speculation, rumor, or unverified discussion suggesting that an athlete might be transgender will not suffice. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Résultat proposé: Non

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Non

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Une athlète féminine transgenre participera-t-elle aux Jeux d'hiver de 2026 ?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Une athlète transgenre participera-t-elle aux Jeux d'hiver de 2026 ?" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Une athlète féminine transgenre participera-t-elle aux Jeux d'hiver de 2026 ?" has generated $10.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 14, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Une athlète féminine transgenre participera-t-elle aux Jeux d'hiver de 2026 ?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Une athlète féminine transgenre participera-t-elle aux Jeux d'hiver de 2026 ?" is "Une athlète transgenre participera-t-elle aux Jeux d'hiver de 2026 ?" at just 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Une athlète féminine transgenre participera-t-elle aux Jeux d'hiver de 2026 ?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.