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Quels partis perdront des sièges aux élections anticipées japonaises ?

Market icon

Quels partis perdront des sièges aux élections anticipées japonaises ?

$134,829 Vol.

Feb 8, 2026
Polymarket

$134,829 Vol.

Polymarket
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PLD

$27,298 Vol.

Non

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PIJ

$3,356 Vol.

Non

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DPFP

$7,828 Vol.

Non

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Sanseitō

$7,046 Vol.

Non

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Reiwa

$11,215 Vol.

Oui

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PCJ

$2,879 Vol.

Oui

Market icon

PCJ

$23,615 Vol.

Oui

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PSD

$29,543 Vol.

Non

Market icon

Mirai

$22,049 Vol.

Non

General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party loses at least 1 seat in the Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) as a result of the next Japanese general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of resolution, a party’s seat count will be compared to the number of seats that party held immediately prior to the dissolution of the House of Representatives for the 2026 Japanese snap election, which may differ from the number of seats won in the previous general election.

If the results of this election aren't known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the respective party, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (Japan’s government statistics portal; https://www.e-stat.go.jp/).
Volume
$134,829
Date de fin
Feb 8, 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 23, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party loses at least 1 seat in the Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) as a result of the next Japanese general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of resolution, a party’s seat count will be compared to the number of seats that party held immediately prior to the dissolution of the House of Representatives for the 2026 Japanese snap election, which may differ from the number of seats won in the previous general election. If the results of this election aren't known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the respective party, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (Japan’s government statistics portal; https://www.e-stat.go.jp/).

Résultat proposé: Non

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Non

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quels partis perdront des sièges aux élections anticipées japonaises ?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Reiwa" at 100%, followed by "PCJ" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quels partis perdront des sièges aux élections anticipées japonaises ?" has generated $134.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quels partis perdront des sièges aux élections anticipées japonaises ?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quels partis perdront des sièges aux élections anticipées japonaises ?" is "Reiwa" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "PCJ" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quels partis perdront des sièges aux élections anticipées japonaises ?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.