Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly anticipates no U.S. evacuation of the Beirut embassy by March 31, driven by sustained de-escalation since the November 27, 2024, Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, which has largely held amid U.S.-brokered diplomatic efforts. The State Department lifted prior authorized departures for non-essential personnel and dependents after peak October 2024 tensions involving airstrikes and cross-border exchanges, restoring full operational capacity without subsequent threats warranting full withdrawal. No major military actions, rocket barrages, or ground escalations have occurred in recent weeks, reinforcing perceptions of low risk to diplomatic presence. Realistic shifts could stem from verified ceasefire violations, renewed hostilities, or direct security incidents targeting U.S. facilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$134,612 Vol.
$134,612 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Oui
$134,612 Vol.
$134,612 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Marché ouvert : Feb 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
Volume
$134,612Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Volume
$134,612Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly anticipates no U.S. evacuation of the Beirut embassy by March 31, driven by sustained de-escalation since the November 27, 2024, Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, which has largely held amid U.S.-brokered diplomatic efforts. The State Department lifted prior authorized departures for non-essential personnel and dependents after peak October 2024 tensions involving airstrikes and cross-border exchanges, restoring full operational capacity without subsequent threats warranting full withdrawal. No major military actions, rocket barrages, or ground escalations have occurred in recent weeks, reinforcing perceptions of low risk to diplomatic presence. Realistic shifts could stem from verified ceasefire violations, renewed hostilities, or direct security incidents targeting U.S. facilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes