Recent polling averages across multiple Spanish firms place the PP at 32% and Vox at 19%, with the combined right-wing bloc projected to secure 198–212 seats in the 350-seat Congress—well above the 176-seat threshold for an absolute majority. The snap election called for November 29 follows the collapse of government housing measures and a migration surge in Ceuta, accelerating erosion of PSOE support to around 26% while boosting Vox gains. Seat simulations from current data indicate PP–Vox majorities in over 99% of outcomes, reflecting sustained voter shifts toward the right-wing bloc since the 2023 results. Traders price the 79% implied probability for a PP + Vox majority in line with these stable polling trends and regional coalition precedents.