Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for fewer than 2.4 million TSA checkpoint passengers on March 31, driven by acute staffing shortages amid a prolonged partial government shutdown. Over 450 TSA officers have quit since late March, with sickout rates exceeding 40% at key airports like Houston, slashing screening capacity and fueling multihour security lines that deterred travel. Recent data underscores the trend: March 30 volumes fell to 2.53 million, following 2.43 million on March 28—well below typical weekday averages near 2.7 million. While paychecks issued late last week eased some disruptions, sustained officer attrition caps upside. Official TSA figures, due by 9 a.m. ET April 1, could challenge this only via anomalous reporting revisions or unreported reinforcements, scenarios traders deem negligible.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour<2.4M 100.0%
2.4M-2.6M <1%
2.6M-2.8M <1%
2.8M-3.0M <1%
$4,011 Vol.
$4,011 Vol.
31 mars 2026
<2.4M
100%
2.4M-2.6M
<1%
2.6M-2.8M
<1%
2.8M-3.0M
<1%
3.0M-3.2M
<1%
>3.2M
<1%
<2.4M 100.0%
2.4M-2.6M <1%
2.6M-2.8M <1%
2.8M-3.0M <1%
$4,011 Vol.
$4,011 Vol.
31 mars 2026
<2.4M
$1,402 Vol.
100%
2.4M-2.6M
$392 Vol.
<1%
2.6M-2.8M
$640 Vol.
<1%
2.8M-3.0M
$243 Vol.
<1%
3.0M-3.2M
$252 Vol.
<1%
>3.2M
$1,083 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on March 31, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for fewer than 2.4 million TSA checkpoint passengers on March 31, driven by acute staffing shortages amid a prolonged partial government shutdown. Over 450 TSA officers have quit since late March, with sickout rates exceeding 40% at key airports like Houston, slashing screening capacity and fueling multihour security lines that deterred travel. Recent data underscores the trend: March 30 volumes fell to 2.53 million, following 2.43 million on March 28—well below typical weekday averages near 2.7 million. While paychecks issued late last week eased some disruptions, sustained officer attrition caps upside. Official TSA figures, due by 9 a.m. ET April 1, could challenge this only via anomalous reporting revisions or unreported reinforcements, scenarios traders deem negligible.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on March 31, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Marché ouvert : Mar 27, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$4,011Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 5:13 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on March 31, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for fewer than 2.4 million TSA checkpoint passengers on March 31, driven by acute staffing shortages amid a prolonged partial government shutdown. Over 450 TSA officers have quit since late March, with sickout rates exceeding 40% at key airports like Houston, slashing screening capacity and fueling multihour security lines that deterred travel. Recent data underscores the trend: March 30 volumes fell to 2.53 million, following 2.43 million on March 28—well below typical weekday averages near 2.7 million. While paychecks issued late last week eased some disruptions, sustained officer attrition caps upside. Official TSA figures, due by 9 a.m. ET April 1, could challenge this only via anomalous reporting revisions or unreported reinforcements, scenarios traders deem negligible.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on March 31, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Volume
$4,011Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 5:13 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for fewer than 2.4 million TSA checkpoint passengers on March 31, driven by acute staffing shortages amid a prolonged partial government shutdown. Over 450 TSA officers have quit since late March, with sickout rates exceeding 40% at key airports like Houston, slashing screening capacity and fueling multihour security lines that deterred travel. Recent data underscores the trend: March 30 volumes fell to 2.53 million, following 2.43 million on March 28—well below typical weekday averages near 2.7 million. While paychecks issued late last week eased some disruptions, sustained officer attrition caps upside. Official TSA figures, due by 9 a.m. ET April 1, could challenge this only via anomalous reporting revisions or unreported reinforcements, scenarios traders deem negligible.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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